Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
DAL6
CGY1
DAL beat CGY 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.29 expected goals to 1.35. DAL outshot CGY 35 to 21. M. Duchene led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). A. Erne had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. C. DeSmith stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 8:44DALS. Steel0.04 xG
- 1st 9:52CGYM. Frost0.09 xG
- 1st 11:54DALJ. Benn0.06 xG
- 2nd 2:26DALM. Bourque0.12 xG
- 2nd 6:02DALS. Steel0.14 xG
- 2nd 8:48DALN. Bastian0.08 xG
- 2nd 19:41DALW. JohnstonPP0.19 xG
Team Stats
DALCGY
35Shots on goal21
3.29Expected goals1.35
69Shot attempts48
285v5 shots on goal17
1/5Power play0/3
16Hits18
11Blocked shots20
8Penalty minutes12
16Giveaways22
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.29 xGCGY 1.35 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:07 | 3:29 |
| S. Steel | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 13:52 | 2:37 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 4:16 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 3:51 |
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:43 | 3:06 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18:37 | 2:37 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 3:24 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:08 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:52 | 2:54 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:23 | 2:52 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:55 | 3:54 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:02 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:25 | 0:08 |
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 1:34 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 17:37 | 2:43 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:29 |
| M. Gridin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 2:18 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:37 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:52 | 2:24 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:51 | 2:24 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 1:17 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:06 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 19:42 | 2:06 |
| Z. Parekh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 1:54 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1M. Bourque14:25W. Johnston13:27J. Robertson13:06
Line 2C. Blackwell11:29J. Hryckowian11:40A. Erne12:30
Line 3N. Bastian11:33O. Bäck11:23A. Hyry11:35
Line 4J. Benn7:38M. Duchene8:05S. Steel8:45
Pair 1I. Lyubushkin14:52L. Bichsel14:37
Pair 2N. Lundkvist15:51T. Harley16:38
Pair 3E. Lindell13:10M. Heiskanen15:21
CGY
Line 1R. Lomberg12:55A. Klapka14:31J. Beecher10:39
Line 2M. Backlund11:00M. Coronato9:47B. Coleman11:45
Line 3M. Gridin10:45M. Frost10:14Y. Sharangovich9:40
Line 4C. Zary11:44N. Kadri13:50J. Farabee8:19
Pair 1Y. Kuznetsov18:16Z. Whitecloud15:38
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.0, CGY 2.7 | DAL 6, CGY 1 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 26.3, CGY 27.8 | DAL 35, CGY 21 |
| Win chance | DAL 54% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.2 | 3 | 0.98 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 2.8 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.2 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 2.0 | 5 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.0 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Gridin | 1.9 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 1.8 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 0 | 0.64 | 4 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| DAL A. Hyry | 1.4 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 3 | 0.36 | 3 | 11% | 2 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY Z. Whitecloud | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY Z. Parekh | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.8 | 5 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY J. Beecher | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.