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Game Recap
DAL2
CHI6
CHI beat DAL 6-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.59 expected goals to 3.67. T. Hall scored three for CHI. P. Mrazek stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CHI | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
- 1st 0:17CHIT. Hall0.05 xG
- 1st 5:43CHIT. Hall0.25 xG
- 2nd 0:41CHIC. BedardPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 3:06CHIT. Teravainen0.11 xG
- 2nd 3:41DALC. Blackwell0.27 xG
- 2nd 8:42CHIT. Hall0.19 xG
- 2nd 13:18CHIL. Crevier0.25 xG
- 3rd 13:43DALM. DuchenePP0.28 xG
Team Stats
DALCHI
27Shots on goal26
3.67Expected goals2.59
74Shot attempts42
215v5 shots on goal22
1/4Power play1/2
14Hits14
10Blocked shots28
4Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways17
12Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.67 xGCHI 2.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 3:52 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:17 | 3:55 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:49 | 3:56 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:10 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:28 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 2:50 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:00 | 3:29 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 2:41 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:40 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:49 | 2:02 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:11 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:08 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:47 | 3:34 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:30 | 3:02 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:05 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 2 | 16:01 | 0:08 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 26 | 20 | 6 | .769 | 59:24 | Loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hall | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 14:19 | 1:12 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 2:01 |
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:55 | 2:01 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:07 | 2:01 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:12 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:50 | 1:12 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | 2:01 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 1:12 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +3 | 0 | 19:45 | 1:12 |
| L. Crevier | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 | 2:01 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Mrazek | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.5, CHI 2.3 | DAL 2, CHI 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 32.1, CHI 25.0 | DAL 27, CHI 26 |
| Win chance | DAL 69% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.8 | 4 | 0.74 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.6 | 5 | 0.77 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.91 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.3 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.0 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 3 | 19% | 3 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.5 | 4 | 0.34 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.7 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.