Game Recap: DAL 5, CHI 1, December 29, 2024

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Game Recap

DAL5

FinalSun, Dec 29, 2024Every game that night

CHI1

DAL beat CHI 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.68 expected goals to 1.99. DAL outshot CHI 35 to 25. J. Benn led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Duchene had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Oettinger stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	2	2	5
CHI	1	0	0	1

1st 12:20CHIC. BedardPP0.11 xG
1st 17:12DALJ. Benn0.15 xG
2nd 8:23DALJ. RobertsonPP0.10 xG
2nd 14:46DALE. Dadonov0.16 xG
3rd 0:10DALW. Johnston0.13 xG
3rd 2:55DALM. Duchene0.26 xG

Team Stats

DALCHI

35Shots on goal25

3.68Expected goals1.99

63Shot attempts44

185v5 shots on goal18

1/7Power play1/4

7Hits19

8Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes23

17Giveaways20

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.68 xGCHI 1.99 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL35 on goal, 5 scored

CHI25 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Benn	LW	1	2	3	5	0	1	+3	2	19:10	8:19
M. Duchene	C	1	2	3	5	0	0	+3	0	18:39	8:25
W. Johnston	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	22:30	9:35
J. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	5	2	1	+1	0	20:45	9:14
E. Dadonov	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	15:29	4:53
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	14:57	5:20
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:01	7:53
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:21	2:04
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:35	0:09
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:15	2:46
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:41	0:05
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:50	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	24:13	9:32
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+4	0	19:26	4:36
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	17:23	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:33	1:49
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:28	0:06
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	12:41	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	25	24	1	.960	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	-4	0	19:27	3:39
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:03	3:38
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	17:11	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	16:35	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:55	2:26
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:17	0:53
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	2	13:23	3:22
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:49	3:34
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	12:30	1:45
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:08	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-2	0	12:07	2:32
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	15	9:06	2:33
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-3	0	22:33	3:27
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	23:50	2:39
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:01	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:56	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:58	0:02
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	35	30	5	.857	60:00	Loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamColin Blackwell DAL Faces CHI, his team until Apr 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.6, CHI 2.5	DAL 5, CHI 1
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	DAL 31.5, CHI 24.6	DAL 35, CHI 25
Win chance	DAL 68%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL W. Johnston	2.8	3	0.80	2	32%	1
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	5	0.93	2	32%	1
DAL L. Stankoven	2.4	2	0.55	1	18%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.4	4	0.82	1	24%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	3	0.81	0	34%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	0	0.70	2	11%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.1	2	0.43	1	10%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.9	5	0.80	3	25%	1
CHI R. Donato	1.9	2	0.45	0	19%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	5	0.81	3	30%	1
CHI T. Hall	1.8	1	0.55	0	20%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	2	0.49	0	10%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.7	0	0.56	0	23%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	3	0.39	0	18%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.6	4	0.49	2	20%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	1	0.57	1	20%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.4	0	0.41	0	16%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.3	1	0.28	0	5%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.3	0	0.27	0	13%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	1	0.31	0	6%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	3	0.25	0	4%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	1	0.43	0	14%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	1	0.22	0	6%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.1	2	0.34	0	16%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	1	0.29	0	11%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.0	1	0.28	0	10%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.0	2	0.35	0	12%	0
CHI F. Nazar	0.9	2	0.28	0	14%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	0	0.23	0	8%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	2	0.14	0	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.8	0	0.36	0	10%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.6	0	0.23	0	7%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.19	0	2%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.21	0	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.5	1	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.