Game Recap: DAL 3, COL 4 (OT), March 16, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

DAL3

Final/OTSun, Mar 16, 2025Every game that night

COL4

COL beat DAL 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.51 expected goals to 2.72. COL outshot DAL 35 to 22. C. Makar led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Necas had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Wedgewood stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	1	0	2	0	3
COL	1	2	0	1	4

1st 4:10DALJ. Robertson0.43 xG
1st 14:09COLM. NecasPP0.11 xG
2nd 6:24COLV. Nichushkin0.08 xG
2nd 17:19COLJ. Drouin0.02 xG
3rd 14:12DALM. Bourque0.34 xG
3rd 14:32DALM. Duchene0.42 xG
OT 0:34COLC. Makar0.10 xG

Team Stats

DALCOL

22Shots on goal35

2.72Expected goals3.51

47Shot attempts76

215v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play1/5

26Hits28

17Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways15

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.72 xGCOL 3.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL22 on goal, 3 scored

COL35 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	19:54	1:54
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	19:07	1:52
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	17:34	1:52
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:15	1:55
M. Duchene	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	15:45	0:08
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	2	14:33	0:05
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	+1	0	11:46	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	6	11:18	0:00
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	16:18	0:06
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:05	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	9:57	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:39	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	22:46	0:01
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	25:39	1:59
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	+1	0	21:46	0:01
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	21:00	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	2	6	0	-1	0	14:35	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:08	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	35	31	4	.886	60:34	OT loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	17:33	5:35
J. Drouin	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	14:44	5:39
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	4	2	0	+1	0	22:20	5:37
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	8	1	0	0	0	20:48	5:35
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	14:46	2:58
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	20:33	3:00
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:45	1:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	13:28	3:03
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:49	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	11:56	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	11:51	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	2	11:01	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	2	3	1	1	1	+2	0	23:51	5:40
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	23:51	2:57
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	+1	0	14:18	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	0	19:28	2:01
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	19:01	0:00
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	22	19	3	.864	60:34	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20262 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20251 A, 2 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 202419 saves on 22, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, COL 3.2	DAL 3, COL 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	DAL 25.4, COL 29.6	DAL 22, COL 35
Win chance	COL 55%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	4	1.37	1	37%	0
COL C. Makar	2.9	1	0.87	3	21%	1
DAL J. Robertson	2.6	2	0.93	1	32%	1
COL M. Necas	2.5	8	0.85	1	26%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.4	2	0.93	1	33%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	1	0.76	1	29%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	3	0.74	2	31%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.2	0	0.71	1	30%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	2	0.70	0	29%	0
COL D. Toews	1.9	1	0.48	1	10%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.8	2	0.54	1	22%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	1	0.51	0	12%	0
DAL R. Hintz	1.8	0	0.70	1	27%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	4	0.75	1	26%	1
DAL M. Granlund	1.5	1	0.58	0	14%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	1	0.56	1	19%	0
COL R. Colton	1.4	2	0.38	0	17%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.3	0	0.43	0	16%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	0	0.27	0	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	3	0.18	1	5%	0
COL S. Girard	1.2	2	0.28	0	5%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.2	0	0.40	0	17%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.2	2	0.58	2	15%	1
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.29	0	10%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	2	0.26	1	6%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.0	2	0.35	1	14%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.0	3	0.23	0	10%	0
COL L. O'Connor	0.9	1	0.25	0	10%	0
DAL C. Ceci	0.9	2	0.27	0	5%	0
COL R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.25	0	4%	0
COL E. Johnson	0.9	1	0.11	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.9	2	0.22	0	11%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	2	0.19	0	5%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.7	0	0.13	0	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.22	0	8%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.