Game Recap: DAL 2, COL 1 (OT), April 23, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL2

Final/OTWed, Apr 23, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

COL1

DAL beat COL 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.19 expected goals to 3.97. N. MacKinnon had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 4.4. J. Oettinger stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	0	0	1	1	2
COL	1	0	0	0	1

1st 8:09COLV. Nichushkin0.21 xG
3rd 9:18DALJ. BennPP0.07 xG
OT 5:31DALT. Seguin0.14 xG

Team Stats

DALCOL

28Shots on goal28

2.19Expected goals3.97

53Shot attempts70

215v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play0/6

34Hits46

21Blocked shots18

10Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways15

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.19 xGCOL 3.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL25 on goal, 2 scored

COL28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:53	0:40
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	5	1	3	0	2	19:16	1:50
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	2	4	1	+1	4	15:27	0:37
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	1	4	3	0	0	15:20	0:40
T. Seguin	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:01	0:39
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	20:11	1:47
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	19:19	1:48
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	16:10	1:47
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:39	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	11:47	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:13	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	29:47	1:57
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	27:19	0:30
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	24:08	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	23:10	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	13:02	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	11:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	28	27	1	.964	65:31	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	19:48	3:17
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	9	1	0	-1	2	29:22	9:20
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	23:15	7:38
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	20:29	6:33
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:26	6:58
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	4	3	2	+1	0	17:59	2:17
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:30	2:36
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	13:16	1:45
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:47	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	11:46	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:39	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:16	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	17:16	0:10
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	12:23	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	3	4	2	-1	0	29:19	7:03
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	27:15	3:44
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	0	0	18:05	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	16:34	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	28	26	2	.929	65:31	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20260 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20251 A, 5 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, COL 3.6	DAL 2, COL 1
Total goals	6.6	3
Shots on goal	DAL 24.7, COL 33.4	DAL 28, COL 28
Win chance	COL 61%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.4	9	1.47	0	39%	0
COL C. Makar	3.5	3	1.04	0	24%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	3.1	3	0.89	1	36%	1
COL G. Landeskog	3.0	0	1.09	0	37%	0
COL M. Necas	2.8	1	0.92	0	27%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	5	0.94	1	33%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	0	0.78	0	31%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.4	1	0.66	1	25%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.3	4	0.74	0	30%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	0	0.69	0	28%	0
COL D. Toews	2.2	1	0.60	0	12%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.1	0	0.28	1	8%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	5	0.79	0	30%	0
DAL M. Marchment	2.0	2	0.59	1	23%	0
DAL T. Harley	2.0	0	0.56	1	13%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	1	0.79	0	27%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.8	1	0.61	1	20%	1
COL J. Manson	1.6	2	0.30	0	6%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.6	2	0.62	1	16%	0
COL J. Drury	1.5	2	0.35	0	12%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.4	1	0.72	0	17%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.4	1	0.50	0	18%	0
COL S. Girard	1.4	0	0.30	1	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.4	0	0.26	0	11%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	1	0.42	0	17%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	1	0.36	0	14%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	2	0.28	0	6%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
COL R. Lindgren	1.1	0	0.27	0	4%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	0	0.30	0	10%	0
DAL C. Ceci	1.0	2	0.24	0	4%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.9	2	0.18	0	6%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.8	1	0.07	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	2	0.17	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.21	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.