Game Recap: DAL 0, COL 4, April 26, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL0

FinalSat, Apr 26, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

COL4

COL beat DAL 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.68 expected goals to 2.07. COL outshot DAL 48 to 23. G. Landeskog led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Kiviranta had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. M. Blackwood stopped 23 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	0	0	0	0
COL	2	1	1	4

1st 12:39COLL. O'ConnorSH0.10 xG
1st 19:36COLN. MacKinnonPP0.12 xG
2nd 13:10COLG. Landeskog0.07 xG
3rd 10:46COLS. Girard0.02 xG

Team Stats

DALCOL

23Shots on goal48

2.07Expected goals4.68

53Shot attempts92

165v5 shots on goal44

0/4Power play1/1

38Hits39

22Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways15

6Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.07 xGCOL 4.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL22 on goal, 0 scored

COL47 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	0	-1	0	19:12	4:26
W. Johnston	C	2	0	0	-3	2	18:19	4:02
M. Granlund	C	1	1	3	0	0	17:45	2:59
M. Duchene	C	1	0	0	-1	0	17:27	4:02
R. Hintz	C	1	1	3	-1	2	16:33	3:14
J. Benn	LW	2	7	1	-2	0	16:32	3:16
M. Marchment	LW	2	8	2	0	2	14:41	2:19
C. Blackwell	C	2	4	1	0	0	13:47	0:00
M. Bourque	C	2	2	1	0	0	13:11	0:00
S. Steel	C	1	1	2	0	0	12:25	0:01
E. Dadonov	LW	1	1	1	-2	0	12:05	0:18
T. Seguin	C	0	1	0	0	0	11:56	2:33
T. Harley	D	2	2	5	-2	0	23:58	5:33
C. Ceci	D	0	2	0	0	0	20:47	0:50
E. Lindell	D	1	2	0	0	0	19:11	1:27
A. Petrovic	D	1	0	3	-1	0	17:45	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	2	0	0	-1	0	17:05	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	1	6	0	-1	0	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	34	31	3	.912	39:48	Loss
C. DeSmith	14	13	1	.929	19:50

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+2	0	14:44	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+2	0	14:37	1:14
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	0	19:37	1:55
L. O'Connor	RW	1	0	1	2	4	0	+1	2	12:13	0:00
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:53	0:41
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	0	17:49	0:43
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:18	1:29
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	6	3	0	0	0	14:13	1:12
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:06	0:26
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	11	2	+1	0	13:39	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	13:31	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	12:24	0:00
S. Girard	D	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	0	20:39	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	2	19:48	0:38
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	23:06	1:17
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	4	1	5	+3	0	19:32	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	+1	4	18:18	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	16:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	23	23	0	1.000	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20265 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20251 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, COL 3.6	DAL 0, COL 4
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	DAL 24.7, COL 33.2	DAL 23, COL 48
Win chance	COL 61%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.7	4	1.52	1	40%	1
COL C. Makar	3.5	5	1.05	0	24%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	3.0	1	0.86	0	35%	0
COL M. Necas	2.8	1	0.92	0	28%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.7	3	0.98	2	34%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	1	0.93	0	32%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	2	0.77	0	31%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.3	3	0.72	2	30%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.3	0	0.64	0	24%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	6	0.68	0	28%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	1	0.80	0	30%	0
COL D. Toews	2.1	0	0.60	1	12%	0
DAL T. Harley	2.0	2	0.57	0	13%	0
DAL M. Marchment	2.0	2	0.59	0	22%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.9	5	0.27	0	7%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	1	0.76	0	26%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.7	2	0.61	0	20%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.7	1	0.63	0	16%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	4	0.30	0	6%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.5	1	0.73	1	18%	0
COL J. Drury	1.5	1	0.33	0	12%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	1	0.42	0	17%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.4	1	0.47	0	17%	0
COL S. Girard	1.4	3	0.29	1	4%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.3	0	0.25	0	10%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	2	0.34	1	13%	1
DAL M. Bourque	1.2	2	0.33	0	14%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	1	0.28	0	6%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
COL R. Lindgren	1.0	3	0.26	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	5	0.24	0	11%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	1	0.29	0	9%	0
DAL C. Ceci	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.9	1	0.17	0	5%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.8	1	0.07	0	2%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.8	2	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.