Game Recap: DAL 5, COL 4 (SO), October 11, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL5

Final/SOSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night

COL4

DAL beat COL 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.82 expected goals to 3.67. COL outshot DAL 39 to 22. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). W. Johnston had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Oettinger stopped 35 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DAL	1	2	1	1	5
COL	0	2	2	0	4

1st 18:51DALT. Harley0.06 xG
2nd 3:54COLM. Necas0.06 xG
2nd 10:07COLG. Brindley0.24 xG
2nd 15:22DALN. Bastian0.52 xG
2nd 18:25DALJ. Robertson0.09 xG
3rd 0:34COLA. Lehkonen0.21 xG
3rd 1:58DALW. Johnston0.33 xG
3rd 10:46COLN. MacKinnonPP0.17 xG

Team Stats

DALCOL

22Shots on goal39

2.82Expected goals3.67

40Shot attempts84

175v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play1/5

17Hits19

25Blocked shots8

15Penalty minutes9

22Giveaways15

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.82 xGCOL 3.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL21 on goal, 4 scored

COL39 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	5	0	2	+1	0	21:29	2:17
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	21:15	3:18
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+3	0	20:21	3:02
N. Bastian	RW	1	0	1	2	3	1	-1	0	7:04	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	22:26	2:12
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	18:21	1:44
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	16:46	1:48
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:49	0:41
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	13:21	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	11:40	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:37	0:49
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	6:23	0:00
T. Harley	D	1	1	2	2	0	4	0	2	25:52	1:30
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	25:07	2:30
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	24:46	0:09
N. Lundkvist	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	17:09	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	4	13:37	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+1	2	14:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	39	35	4	.897	65:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	2	3	4	2	0	+2	0	25:01	6:33
M. Necas	C	1	2	3	3	0	0	+2	0	23:11	6:24
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	22:16	6:37
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	13:45	2:36
G. Brindley	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	6:25	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	24:01	6:30
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	18:01	2:35
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	4	5	0	-1	0	16:14	2:36
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:45	0:01
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:55	0:01
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	5	10:41	2:22
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:23	0:01
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	-2	0	20:35	1:13
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	15:39	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	28:00	1:48
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	5	2	1	+1	2	26:23	6:23
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+2	2	16:11	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	9:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	22	18	4	.818	65:00	OT loss
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen15:52R. Hintz15:18J. Robertson16:12

Line 2M. Duchene13:28T. Seguin15:16W. Johnston13:42

Line 3R. Faksa9:12N. Bastian7:04C. Blackwell7:27

Line 4M. Bourque8:50S. Steel11:40J. Hryckowian6:23

Pair 1E. Lindell16:13M. Heiskanen17:38

Pair 2N. Lundkvist16:51T. Harley17:42

Pair 3I. Lyubushkin12:24L. Bichsel13:08

COL

Line 1M. Necas15:19N. MacKinnon15:03A. Lehkonen13:44

Line 2B. Nelson13:48G. Landeskog13:38V. Nichushkin13:42

Line 3J. Drury12:55R. Colton8:19V. Olofsson10:07

Line 4P. Kelly9:05J. Kiviranta8:17G. Brindley6:25

Pair 1D. Toews22:24C. Makar16:37

Pair 2B. Burns16:24J. Manson15:08

Pair 3S. Malinski14:11I. Solovyov9:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20260 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20251 A, 2 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 202418 saves on 22

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.7, COL 3.5	DAL 5, COL 4
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	DAL 24.0, COL 32.9	DAL 22, COL 39
Win chance	COL 62%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	4	1.46	3	39%	1
COL C. Makar	3.2	5	1.06	0	23%	0
COL M. Necas	2.7	3	0.95	3	28%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	2	0.99	1	33%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	4	0.79	1	31%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	2	0.68	0	30%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.4	2	0.79	0	31%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.4	5	0.84	1	30%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.3	4	0.81	0	29%	0
COL B. Burns	2.2	3	0.41	1	9%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.2	5	0.70	1	29%	1
DAL T. Seguin	2.1	0	0.58	0	23%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	1	0.75	0	28%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.8	1	0.51	1	9%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.8	2	0.45	1	21%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	2	0.55	0	10%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	2	0.48	2	11%	1
COL J. Manson	1.6	2	0.30	0	7%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	2	0.22	1	6%	0
COL R. Colton	1.6	0	0.38	0	16%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.5	1	0.60	0	22%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	2	0.30	0	10%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	0	0.23	0	10%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.2	0	0.20	1	4%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	1	0.27	0	12%	0
COL I. Solovyov	1.1	1	0.23	0	3%	0
DAL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.28	0	10%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.0	1	0.22	1	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	1	0.30	0	9%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.9	2	0.18	1	9%	1
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.8	0	0.18	0	7%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.12	0	4%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.5	0	0.12	1	1%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.