Game Recap: DAL 2, COL 1 (SO), March 18, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL2

Final/SOWed, Mar 18, 2026Every game that night

COL1

DAL beat COL 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.55 expected goals to 3.16. COL outshot DAL 34 to 18. J. Oettinger stopped 33 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DAL	0	1	0	1	2
COL	1	0	0	0	1

1st 18:33COLC. MakarPP0.16 xG
2nd 6:18DALJ. Robertson0.24 xG

Team Stats

DALCOL

18Shots on goal34

3.55Expected goals3.16

43Shot attempts72

125v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play1/2

25Hits29

20Blocked shots6

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways11

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.55 xGCOL 3.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL18 on goal, 1 scored

COL34 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	0	21:08	3:17
N. Bastian	RW	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	0	9:14	0:00
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:20	2:41
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	19:35	2:38
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:13	1:19
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:49	1:17
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:32	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:56	2:41
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	15:11	1:22
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	13:05	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	11:41	0:05
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	8:59	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	2	0	5	+1	0	22:45	1:25
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	28:12	2:35
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	24:01	0:40
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:15	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	14:28	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	34	33	1	.971	64:55	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	26:40	3:23
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	20:46	3:20
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	27:27	3:21
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	24:49	3:23
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:56	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:52	0:02
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	11	1	0	0	14:45	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:37	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:08	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	3:50	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	3:43	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	3:23	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	2	24:39	3:23
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	25:33	0:03
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:53	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:12	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	17:12	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	15:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	18	17	1	.944	65:00	OT loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Bourque15:36J. Robertson15:02W. Johnston14:24

Line 2J. Benn13:15M. Duchene13:50S. Steel14:19

Line 3C. Blackwell11:53J. Hryckowian12:41M. Bunting12:37

Line 4N. Bastian9:14O. Bäck9:30A. Erne8:58

Pair 1E. Lindell18:16M. Heiskanen18:32

Pair 2T. Harley18:30N. Lundkvist17:24

Pair 3T. Myers14:28L. Bichsel14:11

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon19:00M. Necas18:52V. Nichushkin15:11

Line 2B. Nelson18:04N. Roy13:37N. Kadri16:12

Line 3P. Kelly13:05J. Kiviranta13:08J. Drury13:08

Line 4Z. Bardakov3:23I. Ivan3:43G. Brindley3:50

Pair 1D. Toews21:16S. Malinski17:39

Pair 2B. Burns14:10J. Manson14:34

Pair 3B. Kulak16:31C. Makar17:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20261 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 202417 saves on 18

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, COL 3.3	DAL 2, COL 1
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	DAL 24.0, COL 30.2	DAL 18, COL 34
Win chance	COL 57%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.0	5	1.46	1	40%	0
COL N. Kadri	3.0	3	0.82	1	29%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.9	5	0.94	1	34%	1
COL M. Necas	2.8	2	1.17	0	33%	0
COL C. Makar	2.7	4	0.95	1	25%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.5	4	0.89	0	35%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	3	0.75	0	31%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	3	0.72	0	30%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.9	1	0.45	0	18%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	1	0.31	0	6%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	2	0.33	0	9%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.7	1	0.61	0	9%	0
DAL M. Bunting	1.7	1	0.42	0	18%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	3	0.44	0	10%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.6	3	0.69	0	25%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.6	0	0.58	0	20%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.5	2	0.43	1	9%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.31	0	7%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	0	0.32	0	13%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.36	0	12%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	0	0.36	0	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.1	2	0.31	0	11%	0
COL N. Roy	1.1	1	0.37	0	14%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.1	1	0.19	0	4%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.0	1	0.17	0	3%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	1	0.23	0	11%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
DAL E. Lindell	0.9	0	0.29	0	5%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.9	1	0.17	0	9%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.7	0	0.16	1	9%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.6	0	0.16	0	5%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	0	0.17	0	7%	0
COL I. Ivan	0.5	0	0.13	0	7%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	0	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.