Game Recap: DAL 3, COL 2 (SO), October 14, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL3

Final/SOWed, Oct 14, 2026Every game that night

COL2

DAL beat COL 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.80 expected goals to 2.40. N. Kadri led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. DeSmith stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DAL	0	1	1	1	3
COL	0	1	1	0	2

2nd 4:55COLG. Landeskog0.11 xG
2nd 15:03DALM. Heiskanen0.08 xG
3rd 1:20DALA. HyrySH0.19 xG
3rd 8:21COLB. Nelson0.04 xG

Team Stats

DALCOL

22Shots on goal27

1.80Expected goals2.40

49Shot attempts63

175v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play0/4

27Hits18

19Blocked shots17

8Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways18

7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 1.80 xGCOL 2.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL22 on goal, 2 scored

COL27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	4	23:06	4:00
A. Hyry	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	14:40	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	+1	0	22:23	2:48
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:37	1:41
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:39	1:30
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:05	2:09
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	14:59	2:30
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:36	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	12:58	1:12
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	12:41	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	10:58	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:04	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	2	30:03	2:30
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	3	2	5	-1	0	23:04	1:30
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	24:51	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	17:02	0:10
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:57	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	13:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	27	25	2	.926	65:00	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	24:16	5:16
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	23:02	2:42
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	21:57	2:40
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	15:49	2:44
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	25:22	5:18
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	22:24	5:20
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	15:47	0:00
T. Hughes	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:27	5:04
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	13:47	2:40
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:22	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:46	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	+1	0	16:13	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:55	3:11
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	22:54	5:05
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	19:45	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	14:22	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	3	5	0	0	12:32	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	22	20	2	.909	65:00	OT loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen17:08R. Hintz13:57J. Robertson17:26

Line 2J. Hryckowian14:32A. Hyry11:20J. Kiviranta12:05

Line 3J. Benn11:46S. Steel13:14T. Seguin10:50

Line 4C. Blackwell9:52R. Faksa8:27

Pair 1M. Heiskanen20:15E. Lindell18:43

Pair 2N. Lundkvist16:38T. Harley16:58

Pair 3T. Myers12:19L. Bichsel12:09

COL

Line 1A. Lehkonen15:05N. MacKinnon17:52N. Kadri17:15

Line 2B. Nelson15:51G. Landeskog13:05M. Necas15:42

Line 3J. Schwartz11:07F. Svechkov13:11T. Hughes9:23

Line 4P. Kelly8:58G. Brindley6:46

Pair 1B. Burns13:36J. Manson11:12

Pair 2D. Toews15:00C. Makar13:00

Pair 3B. Kulak19:09S. Malinski15:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DAL J. Robertson	3.5	+130	-156	3	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	3.5	-125	+118	4	Over
COL C. Makar	2.5	+105	-120	2	Under
COL M. Necas	2.5	+100	-122	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	+148	-190	1	Under
COL N. Kadri	2.5	+108	-130	2	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	1.5	-110	+108	1	Under
COL B. Burns	1.5	-115	-120	1	Under
COL B. Nelson	1.5	-140	+120	2	Over
COL G. Landeskog	1.5	-140	+110	2	Over
DAL J. Benn	1.5	+110	-140	2	Over
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.5	-125	+110	2	Over
DAL R. Hintz	1.5	-180	+135	1	Under
DAL T. Harley	1.5	+105	-135	3	Over
DAL T. Seguin	1.5	-154	+125	3	Over

4 of 35 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+1000	-3500	1	Over
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
COL B. Burns	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+310	-370	1	Over
DAL C. Blackwell	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
COL F. Svechkov	0.5	+1100	-1400	0	Under
COL G. Brindley	0.5	+850	–	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+380	-450	1	Over
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+460	-600	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
DAL J. Kiviranta	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+155	-200	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+480	-700	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+600	-900	1	Over
COL M. Necas	0.5	+185	-225	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
COL N. Juulsen	0.5	+850	–	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+300	-370	0	Under
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+2500	-5000	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+110	-130	0	Under
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
COL P. Kelly	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
DAL R. Faksa	0.5	+1300	-1600	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+240	-370	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+430	-700	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+2000	-5000	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+300	-370	0	Under

5 of 25 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+270	-370	1	Over
COL B. Burns	0.5	+265	-380	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+225	-260	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-115	+115	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+240	-220	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+250	-295	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+125	-130	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+105	-125	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-105	-115	1	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+175	-210	2	Over
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	-135	+115	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+150	-155	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+205	-280	1	Over
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+230	-265	1	Over
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+220	-255	0	Under

9 of 25 overs hit (36%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
COL N. MacKinnon	1.5	+115	-145	0	Under
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+125	-150	1	Over
COL B. Burns	0.5	+215	-295	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+115	-120	1	Over
COL C. Makar	0.5	-190	+160	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+164	-160	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+135	-145	1	Over
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+160	-190	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+140	-185	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	-200	+165	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-120	+105	1	Over
COL M. Necas	0.5	-200	+165	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-190	+165	1	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	-110	-110	2	Over
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	-135	+125	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+155	-220	1	Over
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+145	-200	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+168	-205	1	Over
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	-105	-115	0	Under

0 of 13 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+380	-900	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+160	-240	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+400	-650	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+165	-220	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+175	-235	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+180	-275	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+165	-220	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+250	-400	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+165	-200	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+260	-295	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+235	-400	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
DAL C. DeSmith	26.5	-105	-106	25	Under
COL S. Wedgewood	22.5	-104	-125	20	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DAL E. Lindell	2.5	-110	–	2	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20260 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.6, COL 3.2	DAL 3, COL 2
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	DAL 23.6, COL 30.1	DAL 22, COL 27
Win chance	COL 61%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.6	4	1.28	0	38%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.2	3	0.93	0	34%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.7	2	0.72	2	27%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	0	1.05	0	31%	0
COL C. Makar	2.5	2	0.94	0	23%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.1	2	0.66	1	26%	1
COL T. Hughes	2.1	0	0.48	0	18%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	1	0.68	0	26%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.9	3	0.53	0	22%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	1.9	1	0.85	1	28%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.8	1	0.61	1	27%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.8	2	0.56	1	26%	1
COL S. Malinski	1.8	4	0.35	1	8%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	1	0.33	0	8%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.7	2	0.61	1	10%	1
COL D. Toews	1.5	0	0.51	0	10%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.34	0	7%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	2	0.46	0	18%	0
COL J. Schwartz	1.4	3	0.42	0	17%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.4	3	0.37	1	8%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.35	0	12%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.2	2	0.20	1	11%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.1	0	0.32	0	13%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	2	0.28	0	13%	0
DAL J. Kiviranta	0.9	0	0.15	0	8%	0
COL F. Svechkov	0.9	3	0.27	0	10%	0
DAL E. Lindell	0.9	0	0.25	0	5%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.9	0	0.19	0	3%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.8	1	0.16	0	7%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
DAL T. Myers	0.8	0	0.14	0	2%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	1	0.18	0	6%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.6	1	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.