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Game Recap
DAL3
Final/OTTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night
DET4

DET beat DAL 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.48 expected goals to 3.72. L. Raymond led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). E. Finnie had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Gibson stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
DAL02103
DET10214
  1. 1st 9:23DETJ. van Riemsdyk0.14 xG
  2. 2nd 10:47DALR. HintzPP0.18 xG
  3. 2nd 19:16DALJ. Benn0.18 xG
  4. 3rd 3:02DETE. FinniePP0.06 xG
  5. 3rd 11:18DALW. JohnstonPP0.09 xG
  6. 3rd 15:57DETD. LarkinPP0.14 xG
  7. OT 0:34DETD. Larkin0.20 xG

Team Stats

DALDET
22Shots on goal25
3.72Expected goals2.48
60Shot attempts50
175v5 shots on goal12
2/5Power play2/3
20Hits16
8Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes10
15Giveaways12
4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.72 xGDET 2.48 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTDET goal, 9:23DAL goal, 10:47DAL goal, 19:16DET goal, 3:02DAL goal, 11:18DET goal, 15:57DET goal, 0:34

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL22 on goal, 3 scored
DET25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. RantanenRW0220000220:016:23
J. RobertsonLW011500-2021:566:01
W. JohnstonC1013000020:076:23
R. HintzC101200-2018:465:33
M. DucheneC011200+1015:181:05
J. HryckowianC011110+1211:260:00
J. BennLW101120+1010:450:15
M. BourqueC000400-1015:320:15
S. SteelC0000100012:570:00
R. FaksaC0000400012:560:00
O. BäckC0000020012:450:00
A. ErneLW0000610010:150:00
M. HeiskanenD011211-1027:445:54
T. HarleyD0001100022:101:06
E. LindellD0000020021:300:15
N. LundkvistD0000010016:410:00
I. LyubushkinD0000310014:300:00
A. PetrovicD0001100012:170:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. DeSmith25214.84059:50OT loss
J. Oettinger000–0:00

DET Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. RaymondLW033310+1217:422:51
D. LarkinC202322+1220:472:51
J. van RiemsdykLW112103+1210:120:57
E. FinnieC1015010016:132:32
M. RasmussenC011010+1012:190:00
A. DeBrincatRW000410-1018:312:46
A. CoppC000000-1017:110:38
J. CompherLW0001110014:200:00
J. LeonardLW000210-1013:330:38
M. AppletonC0000100013:260:00
M. KasperC0001100011:100:00
N. DanielsonC000000+1010:500:42
M. SeiderD0224200222:362:32
S. EdvinssonD011011+1021:500:01
B. ChiarotD0000130022:310:00
J. Bernard-DockerD0000340021:000:00
A. JohanssonD0000010016:580:00
A. Sandin-PellikkaD0001000212:340:57
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Gibson22193.86460:34Win
C. Talbot000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson14:20M. Bourque15:17R. Hintz12:17
Line 2M. Rantanen12:54W. Johnston12:38S. Steel11:21
Line 3M. Duchene13:26J. Hryckowian10:48J. Benn10:02
Line 4R. Faksa10:05O. Bäck10:04A. Erne9:54
Pair 1N. Lundkvist15:22T. Harley19:42
Pair 2M. Heiskanen18:14E. Lindell17:31
Pair 3A. Petrovic11:48I. Lyubushkin13:17

DET

Line 1L. Raymond14:02D. Larkin14:53E. Finnie12:50
Line 2A. Copp13:13J. Leonard12:05A. DeBrincat14:47
Line 3J. Compher10:42M. Rasmussen10:45J. Riemsdyk9:09
Line 4M. Kasper9:48N. Danielson9:26M. Appleton11:09
Pair 1M. Seider17:25S. Edvinsson18:54
Pair 2J. Bernard-Docker16:46A. Johansson16:42
Pair 3B. Chiarot15:56A. Sandin-Pellikka10:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreDAL 2.9, DET 2.9DAL 3, DET 4
Total goals5.97
Shots on goalDAL 24.2, DET 29.8DAL 22, DET 25
Win chanceDET 51%DET won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DET A. DeBrincat3.240.83031%0
DET D. Larkin3.030.91233%2
DAL J. Robertson2.950.98135%0
DET L. Raymond2.430.90326%0
DET M. Seider2.240.5229%0
DAL M. Rantanen2.201.01232%0
DAL W. Johnston2.130.77130%1
DAL M. Heiskanen2.120.73113%0
DAL R. Hintz1.920.79129%1
DET E. Finnie1.950.44118%1
DET J. Riemsdyk1.710.46218%1
DAL M. Bourque1.540.36015%0
DAL T. Harley1.510.49011%0
DET M. Kasper1.510.26013%0
DET B. Chiarot1.400.2007%0
DET A. Copp1.400.47014%0
DAL J. Benn1.410.51118%1
DET S. Edvinsson1.400.3419%0
DET N. Danielson1.300.29010%0
DAL M. Duchene1.320.57121%0
DET J. Leonard1.320.23013%0
DAL E. Lindell1.200.3808%0
DET M. Rasmussen1.200.30113%0
DAL N. Lundkvist1.200.2305%0
DAL J. Hryckowian1.110.33114%0
DET M. Appleton1.100.27010%0
DET J. Compher1.110.33013%0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka1.110.2807%0
DAL A. Petrovic1.110.2105%0
DAL S. Steel1.000.32011%0
DET J. Bernard-Docker1.000.1404%0
DAL R. Faksa0.800.3109%0
DAL A. Erne0.800.1909%0
DET A. Johansson0.800.1203%0
DAL O. Bäck0.700.2609%0
DAL I. Lyubushkin0.700.2002%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.