Game Recap: DAL 4, EDM 5, March 8, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL4

FinalSat, Mar 8, 2025Every game that night

EDM5

EDM beat DAL 5-4, with the chances close: 3.77 expected goals to 3.44. Z. Hyman led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Harley had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Skinner stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	0	3	4
EDM	3	2	0	5

1st 5:48DALW. JohnstonPP0.66 xG
1st 6:12EDMZ. Hyman0.36 xG
1st 12:26EDMZ. Hyman0.11 xG
1st 17:42EDMV. Arvidsson0.08 xG
2nd 5:20EDMC. McDavid0.15 xG
2nd 17:40EDMC. Brown0.13 xG
3rd 5:06DALM. RantanenPP0.15 xG
3rd 5:17DALJ. Benn0.13 xG
3rd 9:18DALM. Dumba0.04 xG

Team Stats

DALEDM

25Shots on goal27

3.44Expected goals3.77

60Shot attempts51

205v5 shots on goal27

2/3Power play0/0

12Hits22

18Blocked shots19

0Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways21

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.44 xGEDM 3.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL24 on goal, 4 scored

EDM27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	-1	21:56	3:52
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	22:28	3:49
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	-2	20:18	3:50
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	18:13	1:58
M. Granlund	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	16:54	1:03
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	16:37	0:44
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	14:35	0:47
E. Dadonov	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	10:43	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	13:39	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	13:36	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:30	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	9:15	2:21
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	5	0	3	-3	26:06	4:36
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	20:54	0:00
M. Dumba	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	14:13	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	21:12	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	15:49	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	2	6	0	+1	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	27	22	5	.815	57:53	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Hyman	LW	2	1	3	5	0	0	+2	0	18:13	0:00
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	+2	0	20:57	0:00
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	19:33	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	18:45	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	5	0	2	+1	0	15:07	0:00
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	13:47	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	0	15:11	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	13:39	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	12:43	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	10:05	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	9:29	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	0	5	2	-1	0	7:50	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	2	4	3	+3	0	27:58	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	3	2	3	+3	0	24:40	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:37	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	22:05	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:48	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	11:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	25	21	4	.840	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.0, EDM 3.2	DAL 4, EDM 5
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	DAL 27.2, EDM 31.2	DAL 25, EDM 27
Win chance	EDM 53%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	4	1.52	2	38%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	1	1.27	1	41%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	0	0.70	1	14%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.7	5	0.70	3	34%	2
DAL J. Robertson	2.6	2	0.92	1	31%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	4	0.95	2	33%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	1	0.77	1	28%	1
EDM J. Walman	2.5	3	0.40	1	12%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	2	0.33	1	9%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.1	5	0.51	1	18%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	0	0.78	0	30%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	5	0.55	1	14%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.8	0	0.52	1	20%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	1	0.72	1	22%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	0	0.76	1	26%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.7	0	0.29	0	6%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.6	2	0.62	1	14%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.6	1	0.58	1	19%	1
DAL E. Dadonov	1.3	1	0.41	1	15%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	2	0.29	0	7%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	1	0.33	0	16%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.31	0	11%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	2	0.26	0	10%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.1	0	0.36	0	17%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	1	0.36	0	14%	0
EDM M. Jones	1.1	0	0.22	0	9%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.1	3	0.27	1	9%	1
EDM K. Kapanen	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	0	0.18	0	2%	0
DAL C. Ceci	0.9	0	0.25	1	5%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	0	0.11	0	3%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	2	0.21	0	6%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.25	0	9%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.7	2	0.13	1	4%	1
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.25	0	9%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.