Game Recap: DAL 4, EDM 3, March 26, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL4

FinalWed, Mar 26, 2025Every game that night

EDM3

DAL beat EDM 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.42 expected goals to 4.71. EDM outshot DAL 44 to 24. J. Robertson scored three for DAL. A. Henrique had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Oettinger stopped 41 of 44.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	3	0	4
EDM	0	0	3	3

1st 14:26DALW. Johnston0.21 xG
2nd 5:01DALJ. Robertson0.18 xG
2nd 10:42DALJ. Robertson0.14 xG
2nd 15:30DALJ. RobertsonPP0.17 xG
3rd 9:30EDMC. PerryPP0.14 xG
3rd 13:54EDMA. HenriquePP0.11 xG
3rd 18:35EDMZ. Hyman0.24 xG

Team Stats

DALEDM

24Shots on goal44

2.42Expected goals4.71

50Shot attempts85

175v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play2/6

9Hits22

20Blocked shots12

14Penalty minutes8

19Giveaways9

8Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.42 xGEDM 4.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL23 on goal, 4 scored

EDM42 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	3	0	3	5	0	0	+1	2	18:00	4:48
R. Hintz	C	0	3	3	0	2	0	+1	2	15:18	2:59
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:31	4:16
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	17:36	4:31
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:40	0:42
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:40	3:00
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:43	1:18
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	14:25	1:13
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	11:13	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:57	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	10:42	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:41	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	+2	0	23:32	5:33
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	24:41	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	20:51	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	3	0	7	+1	0	17:39	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	14:56	0:05
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	2	13:15	0:30

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	44	41	3	.932	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Henrique	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	-2	0	17:18	4:38
C. Perry	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	-1	0	14:48	4:42
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	6	1	0	+1	0	17:53	4:47
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:32	4:46
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	16:27	4:47
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	16:25	4:50
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:23	3:02
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	15:52	0:12
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:00	1:52
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:03	0:12
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:50	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	8:31	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	2	2	4	0	1	-1	2	22:23	6:03
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	0	22:52	3:59
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	2	16:34	1:53
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	2	20:48	2:13
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	19:17	0:24
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	13:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	21	17	4	.810	46:34	Loss
C. Pickard	3	3	0	1.000	11:07

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.1, EDM 3.4	DAL 4, EDM 3
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	DAL 26.5, EDM 32.1	DAL 24, EDM 44
Win chance	EDM 55%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM Z. Hyman	2.6	6	0.68	1	33%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	4	0.67	2	13%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	5	0.93	3	32%	3
EDM D. Nurse	2.3	1	0.36	0	9%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	1	0.74	1	28%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.2	1	0.87	1	30%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.2	1	0.52	0	20%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.1	3	0.53	0	24%	0
EDM J. Walman	2.0	5	0.37	1	10%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	3	0.40	1	10%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	3	0.56	2	15%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	3	0.75	0	23%	0
DAL R. Hintz	1.8	0	0.77	3	29%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.7	3	0.54	0	21%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	3	0.74	0	25%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.6	1	0.60	0	14%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.4	0	0.55	1	18%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	3	0.26	0	5%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.3	2	0.33	0	11%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	1	0.29	0	12%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	2	0.33	2	17%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	5	0.38	2	18%	1
DAL E. Dadonov	1.1	0	0.38	0	14%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	1	0.28	0	7%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	1	0.27	0	9%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.0	2	0.26	0	10%	0
DAL C. Ceci	0.9	1	0.26	0	5%	0
EDM M. Jones	0.8	0	0.17	0	7%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	0	0.16	0	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	2	0.26	0	9%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	1	0.11	0	3%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.7	1	0.12	0	4%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	3	0.17	0	2%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	0	0.20	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.