Game Recap: DAL 3, FLA 4 (SO), November 1, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL3

Final/SOSat, Nov 1, 2025Every game that night

FLA4

FLA beat DAL 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 2.91 expected goals to 2.14. S. Steel led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). W. Johnston had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Bobrovsky stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DAL	0	2	1	0	3
FLA	0	2	1	1	4

2nd 1:48FLAB. Marchand0.09 xG
2nd 4:02FLAS. Reinhart0.05 xG
2nd 14:47DALW. JohnstonPP0.21 xG
2nd 15:01DALJ. HryckowianPP0.10 xG
3rd 12:26FLAS. Bennett0.10 xG
3rd 17:19DALM. Rantanen0.09 xG

Team Stats

DALFLA

22Shots on goal28

2.14Expected goals2.91

43Shot attempts66

145v5 shots on goal21

2/3Power play0/1

21Hits26

22Blocked shots9

2Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways21

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.14 xGFLA 2.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL22 on goal, 3 scored

FLA28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Steel	C	0	3	3	0	2	0	0	0	18:04	1:11
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	-1	0	23:08	3:04
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	21:45	2:50
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	-2	0	20:00	2:20
J. Hryckowian	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	14:02	0:22
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:32	2:15
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:09	1:06
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	12:57	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:25	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:55	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:04	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	11:04	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-2	0	26:47	1:11
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	25:12	2:15
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:06	0:36
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	19:57	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:41	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	28	25	3	.893	64:36	OT loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	22:31	0:54
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:30	1:07
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	20:44	0:51
E. Rodrigues	C	0	1	1	4	2	0	+1	0	19:14	1:06
B. Marchand	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:49	0:59
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:46	1:05
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	15:14	1:01
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	13:51	0:50
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:57	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	9:57	0:03
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:27	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	23:23	0:18
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	23:35	0:04
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	4	23:02	0:59
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	21:48	0:43
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	15:56	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	22	19	3	.864	65:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen16:59W. Johnston15:38J. Robertson17:28

Line 2S. Steel15:01M. Bourque13:33T. Seguin14:27

Line 3R. Faksa11:15A. Erne11:04N. Bastian11:04

Line 4J. Hryckowian12:46C. Blackwell11:36O. Bäck11:32

Pair 1I. Lyubushkin19:04T. Harley23:53

Pair 2E. Lindell18:11M. Heiskanen19:20

Pair 3A. Petrovic13:36L. Bichsel14:23

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe19:33E. Rodrigues17:05S. Reinhart16:52

Line 2B. Marchand15:10A. Lundell14:45E. Luostarinen13:01

Line 3S. Bennett12:45M. Samoskevich12:37J. Boqvist11:33

Line 4A. Greer9:54N. Gregor9:27C. Schwindt9:36

Pair 1S. Jones19:17N. Mikkola21:18

Pair 2G. Forsling19:32A. Ekblad18:04

Pair 3J. Petry14:25D. Sebrango15:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.6, FLA 3.1	DAL 3, FLA 4
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	DAL 23.4, FLA 31.2	DAL 22, FLA 28
Win chance	FLA 59%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Reinhart	3.2	1	1.05	1	40%	1
DAL J. Robertson	2.8	4	0.96	1	34%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	3	0.65	1	27%	1
FLA B. Marchand	2.7	1	0.88	1	30%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	1	0.73	1	28%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.4	0	0.74	1	22%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	5	0.75	1	32%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	2	0.98	2	33%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.3	2	0.51	1	18%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	2	0.56	0	10%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.1	4	0.50	1	18%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.1	0	0.64	0	25%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.0	1	0.52	0	11%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	2.0	3	0.48	0	10%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.0	3	0.35	1	10%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	2	0.46	1	9%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.5	1	0.46	1	15%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	2	0.31	0	13%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.3	1	0.18	0	9%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	0	0.18	0	5%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	1	0.26	0	6%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.35	3	12%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	1	0.27	0	12%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	1	0.19	0	9%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	1	0.22	0	9%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.9	0	0.22	0	4%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.8	0	0.09	0	3%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.13	0	4%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	0	0.22	0	8%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.7	3	0.13	1	7%	1
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	0	0.14	0	1%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.7	0	0.16	0	7%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.6	3	0.16	0	6%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.6	0	0.12	0	6%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	0	0.17	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.