Game Recap: DAL 2, LAK 3, December 4, 2024

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Game Recap

DAL2

FinalWed, Dec 4, 2024Every game that night

LAK3

LAK beat DAL 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.63 expected goals to 3.09. DAL outshot LAK 28 to 17. W. Foegele led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Lundkvist had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Rittich stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	2	0	0	2
LAK	0	2	1	3

1st 2:34DALW. JohnstonPP0.03 xG
1st 13:40DALM. Marchment0.12 xG
2nd 4:40LAKT. Jeannot0.59 xG
2nd 15:38LAKJ. Edmundson0.01 xG
3rd 2:22LAKW. Foegele0.06 xG

Team Stats

DALLAK

28Shots on goal17

3.09Expected goals1.63

68Shot attempts42

255v5 shots on goal16

1/2Power play0/2

8Hits32

13Blocked shots21

2Penalty minutes2

18Giveaways13

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.09 xGLAK 1.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL27 on goal, 2 scored

LAK17 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	0	20:31	2:05
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:31	2:03
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	-1	0	16:34	1:52
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	15:45	2:00
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	15:09	1:49
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:22	2:02
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:49	1:54
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:44	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:14	1:51
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:53	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:05	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:28	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	24:12	2:44
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:44	1:10
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	-1	0	20:57	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	16:31	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:30	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	17	14	3	.824	58:37	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Foegele	LW	1	1	2	4	1	2	+2	0	17:03	1:28
T. Jeannot	LW	1	1	2	1	3	1	+1	0	12:29	0:00
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:43	2:29
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	20:11	0:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	19:16	2:32
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	18:34	2:28
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:05	1:33
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	18:04	1:31
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	17:47	2:29
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:53	1:30
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	6:59	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	17:36	0:00
K. Burroughs	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	4:50	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	24:07	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	24:00	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+2	0	17:20	1:40
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	15:12	2:20
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+2	0	12:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJason Robertson DAL Plays near home (born in Arcadia)1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.8, LAK 2.7	DAL 2, LAK 3
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	DAL 26.0, LAK 28.1	DAL 28, LAK 17
Win chance	DAL 51%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	1	0.87	0	34%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	2	0.64	1	27%	1
LAK K. Fiala	2.4	3	0.79	0	27%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.2	2	0.53	0	20%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	4	0.46	2	19%	1
DAL J. Robertson	2.2	1	0.76	1	28%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	2	0.43	0	8%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	1	0.71	0	30%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	1.9	2	0.47	1	16%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	1.9	0	0.48	0	21%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.8	0	0.62	0	10%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.7	5	0.57	1	21%	1
LAK Q. Byfield	1.7	1	0.53	0	16%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.7	2	0.63	1	21%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.6	1	0.68	0	26%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.6	0	0.52	0	18%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.5	2	0.42	0	8%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	0	0.82	1	24%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.33	0	7%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.3	0	0.41	0	17%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.3	0	0.25	0	6%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	4	0.29	0	6%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.2	0	0.26	0	4%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	6	0.21	0	4%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	1	0.34	0	11%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	2	0.19	1	5%	1
LAK A. Turcotte	0.9	0	0.26	0	9%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.9	1	0.22	2	11%	1
DAL M. Bourque	0.8	0	0.20	0	8%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.8	0	0.12	0	3%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.8	0	0.22	0	9%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.7	0	0.09	1	2%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.19	0	7%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.6	0	0.06	0	2%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.18	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.