Game Recap: DAL 4, LAK 5 (SO), February 7, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL4

Final/SOFri, Feb 7, 2025Every game that night

LAK5

LAK beat DAL 5-4 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.87 expected goals to 2.79. M. Duchene led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Duchene had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. D. Rittich stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DAL	1	1	2	0	4
LAK	1	2	1	1	5

1st 0:11LAKW. Foegele0.20 xG
1st 19:58DALM. Duchene0.03 xG
2nd 8:16LAKK. Fiala0.14 xG
2nd 9:29DALT. Harley0.24 xG
2nd 11:43LAKA. Laferriere0.43 xG
3rd 6:53DALM. Bourque0.18 xG
3rd 9:41DALM. Duchene0.06 xG
3rd 11:40LAKA. Kopitar0.14 xG

Team Stats

DALLAK

30Shots on goal37

2.79Expected goals3.87

67Shot attempts82

265v5 shots on goal35

0/1Power play0/1

19Hits13

22Blocked shots20

9Penalty minutes9

19Giveaways11

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.79 xGLAK 3.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL29 on goal, 4 scored

LAK37 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Duchene	C	2	1	3	6	1	0	+2	0	20:14	0:54
M. Granlund	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	20:51	0:48
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:47	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	12:32	0:47
E. Dadonov	LW	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	11:37	0:00
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	20:28	0:53
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	19:46	0:55
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	17:27	0:54
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	16:41	0:46
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	12:31	0:47
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:39	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	11:10	0:00
T. Harley	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	-1	0	26:08	1:21
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	24:39	0:20
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	-1	0	24:09	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	16:43	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	5	12:37	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	6	4	+1	0	19:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	37	33	4	.892	65:00	OT loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	0	23:04	1:28
P. Danault	C	0	2	2	4	1	1	+1	0	20:36	0:47
Q. Byfield	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:01	0:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	2	19:59	0:57
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	19:48	1:12
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	18:16	0:24
A. Kopitar	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:15	1:11
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	16:26	0:27
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:49	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	5	7:39	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	6:51	0:00
A. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:36	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	29:27	1:27
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	29:00	0:05
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:09	0:09
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	18:14	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	13:46	0:13
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	11:04	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	30	26	4	.867	65:00	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJason Robertson DAL Plays near home (born in Arcadia)3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.6, LAK 2.5	DAL 4, LAK 5
Total goals	5.1	9
Shots on goal	DAL 26.2, LAK 26.9	DAL 30, LAK 37
Win chance	DAL 52%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	7	0.77	1	32%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.6	4	0.73	2	27%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	3	0.69	0	26%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.4	3	0.79	0	28%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.3	3	0.47	1	20%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.1	4	0.45	1	19%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.1	3	0.50	1	20%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.0	3	0.37	0	13%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.9	2	0.58	1	18%	0
DAL R. Hintz	1.9	2	0.63	0	28%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	2	0.45	1	10%	1
DAL M. Granlund	1.7	2	0.62	1	15%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.7	2	0.59	1	20%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.7	1	0.48	0	19%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.7	2	0.50	0	11%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	6	0.66	3	24%	2
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	0	0.32	0	5%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.6	4	0.31	0	6%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.6	0	0.45	1	17%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.5	4	0.50	2	18%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	1	0.70	1	21%	1
LAK J. Edmundson	1.3	1	0.19	0	5%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.3	1	0.31	0	5%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	1	0.30	1	13%	1
DAL S. Steel	1.3	1	0.32	0	11%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	1	0.28	1	6%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.1	1	0.30	0	10%	0
DAL C. Ceci	1.0	1	0.24	1	5%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.0	0	0.16	0	8%	0
LAK A. Thomas	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.8	0	0.20	0	10%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.8	2	0.11	1	3%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.19	0	6%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	0	0.23	0	9%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0
DAL B. Smith	0.6	0	0.11	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.