Game Recap: DAL 3, LAK 1, January 12, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL3

FinalMon, Jan 12, 2026Every game that night

LAK1

DAL beat LAK 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.87 expected goals to 1.53. E. Lindell led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). T. Harley had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Oettinger stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	0	2	3
LAK	0	0	1	1

1st 3:44DALW. Johnston0.14 xG
3rd 8:42LAKQ. ByfieldPP0.20 xG
3rd 16:14DALJ. Robertson0.03 xG
3rd 19:42DALM. DucheneEN0.60 xG

Team Stats

DALLAK

18Shots on goal25

2.87Expected goals1.53

44Shot attempts48

165v5 shots on goal24

0/0Power play1/2

17Hits24

13Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways9

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.87 xGLAK 1.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL18 on goal, 3 scored

LAK25 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Steel	C	0	2	2	0	1	1	+2	0	18:20	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:40	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	16:49	0:00
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:43	0:00
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	2	16:19	0:00
M. Duchene	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:19	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	17:26	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:02	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	12:37	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:55	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:54	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:11	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+2	0	26:36	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	25:55	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	+1	0	23:08	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	17:09	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	14:52	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	25	24	1	.960	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	19:36	2:01
C. Perry	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	17:33	1:45
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	18:09	1:07
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:00	1:40
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:56	0:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-3	0	17:37	1:27
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:22	0:33
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	14:13	0:54
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	-2	0	13:40	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:40	0:00
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:35	0:49
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	-2	0	21:23	1:41
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	2	24:07	0:53
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	22:28	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:07	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:26	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	17	15	2	.882	58:37	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson17:51M. Bourque17:26R. Hintz16:22

Line 2S. Steel15:05W. Johnston15:24M. Rantanen14:56

Line 3J. Benn12:37M. Duchene12:42J. Hryckowian11:36

Line 4R. Faksa9:23O. Bäck9:25N. Bastian9:11

Pair 1M. Heiskanen21:50E. Lindell22:10

Pair 2A. Petrovic16:19T. Harley21:34

Pair 3N. Lundkvist13:53K. Capobianco12:31

LAK

Line 1W. Foegele17:56Q. Byfield16:18C. Perry14:25

Line 2A. Kempe14:22A. Laferriere16:19J. Malott13:40

Line 3K. Fiala13:51A. Kuzmenko14:57A. Turcotte13:19

Line 4S. Helenius9:17A. Lee9:40T. Ward8:46

Pair 1D. Doughty21:51M. Anderson21:45

Pair 2B. Clarke17:02J. Edmundson17:29

Pair 3C. Ceci15:07B. Dumoulin14:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJason Robertson DAL Plays near home (born in Arcadia)1 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, LAK 3.0	DAL 3, LAK 1
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	DAL 24.2, LAK 29.0	DAL 18, LAK 25
Win chance	LAK 52%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.0	0	0.86	0	32%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.0	1	0.98	1	34%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	3	0.89	0	33%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.6	1	0.54	0	21%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	2	1.03	1	32%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	1	0.80	1	31%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.3	1	0.47	0	21%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	4	0.71	1	22%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	2	0.74	1	27%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	2	0.47	1	10%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.9	1	0.63	0	11%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.7	0	0.48	1	21%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.6	2	0.49	0	12%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.5	1	0.63	0	25%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.5	3	0.34	0	14%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.4	4	0.37	0	12%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.4	4	0.41	0	9%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.4	2	0.53	1	20%	1
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	1	0.23	0	4%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.2	0	0.18	0	10%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.2	1	0.41	0	15%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	0	0.32	2	10%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	3	0.24	0	5%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.0	0	0.30	2	6%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	0	0.28	0	12%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.9	0	0.15	0	4%	0
LAK A. Lee	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	1	0.20	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	0	0.24	0	7%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.6	0	0.14	0	4%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.14	0	8%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	1	0.19	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.