Game Recap: DAL 2, MIN 1, November 16, 2024

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Game Recap

DAL2

FinalSat, Nov 16, 2024Every game that night

MIN1

DAL beat MIN 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.90 expected goals to 2.05. DAL outshot MIN 40 to 23. M. Marchment led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Duchene had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Oettinger stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	0	1	2
MIN	0	0	1	1

1st 18:43DALM. Marchment0.12 xG
3rd 11:24DALM. Marchment0.28 xG
3rd 14:10MINK. Kaprizov0.06 xG

Team Stats

DALMIN

40Shots on goal23

2.90Expected goals2.05

66Shot attempts61

395v5 shots on goal17

0/1Power play0/2

14Hits29

17Blocked shots14

14Penalty minutes12

16Giveaways19

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.90 xGMIN 2.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL40 on goal, 2 scored

MIN22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	2	0	2	3	3	1	+1	0	16:55	0:49
T. Seguin	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	0	16:48	0:53
S. Steel	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:40	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:47	1:08
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	17:28	1:13
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:36	0:48
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:13	0:57
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:25	0:10
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	15:10	0:52
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	13:47	0:56
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	10:40	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:56	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	2	2	2	0	4	+2	0	17:54	0:05
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	26:20	0:14
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	25:35	0:52
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	+2	0	20:11	1:03
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	5	14:19	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	7	14:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	-1	0	23:54	2:21
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	21:49	2:18
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	21:02	2:21
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:28	2:22
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	16:40	1:38
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:26	1:42
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	15:18	0:06
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	14:14	1:33
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:10	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:30	0:00
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	8:14	0:00
M. Milne	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6:34	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	3	2	5	+1	0	19:36	1:18
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	26:06	2:42
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:31	1:39
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	5	19:01	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:00	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	5	14:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	40	38	2	.950	57:43	Loss
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSam Steel DAL Faces MIN, his team until Apr 20231 A, 1 SOG
HometownJake Oettinger DAL Plays near home (born in Lakeville)22 saves on 23, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.1, MIN 2.9	DAL 2, MIN 1
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	DAL 28.5, MIN 27.9	DAL 40, MIN 23
Win chance	DAL 53%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	4	1.18	1	41%	1
MIN M. Boldy	2.8	1	0.80	1	29%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	1	0.63	0	27%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.4	1	0.81	0	30%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.3	5	0.65	1	25%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.1	3	0.55	0	18%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	2	0.63	0	10%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	2	0.53	0	22%	0
DAL R. Hintz	1.8	2	0.67	0	28%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.7	0	0.45	0	18%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.7	3	0.58	2	21%	2
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	5	0.69	0	26%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.7	2	0.60	0	20%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	4	0.45	0	8%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.5	1	0.45	0	17%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.5	1	0.37	0	15%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.4	4	0.44	0	8%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.4	3	0.33	1	8%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	2	0.30	0	6%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	1	0.36	0	14%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	0	0.20	0	13%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.1	2	0.17	0	4%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	1	0.32	1	11%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.0	2	0.19	0	9%	0
DAL M. Dumba	1.0	2	0.15	0	4%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
DAL M. Bourque	0.9	1	0.22	0	11%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	0.9	0	0.23	0	5%	0
DAL B. Smith	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.8	1	0.32	0	14%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.8	3	0.28	0	11%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	1	0.14	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	2	0.18	2	2%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.4	0	0.20	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.