Game Recap: DAL 2, MIN 3 (OT), April 6, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL2

Final/OTSun, Apr 6, 2025Every game that night

MIN3

MIN beat DAL 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.28 expected goals to 1.95. MIN outshot DAL 41 to 25. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Rossi had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. F. Gustavsson stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	1	0	1	0	2
MIN	0	0	2	1	3

1st 5:51DALJ. Robertson0.05 xG
3rd 3:08MINM. Boldy0.26 xG
3rd 5:00MINM. Foligno0.30 xG
3rd 13:05DALT. Harley0.02 xG
OT 0:58MINM. RossiPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

DALMIN

25Shots on goal41

1.95Expected goals3.28

45Shot attempts63

145v5 shots on goal35

0/4Power play1/4

17Hits27

10Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes8

18Giveaways15

1Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 1.95 xGMIN 3.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL22 on goal, 2 scored

MIN40 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	4	20:38	4:42
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	19:45	4:50
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:22	3:31
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	12:22	2:20
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	22:10	4:45
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:25	4:22
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	15:49	3:05
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:49	3:40
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:04	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:03	0:30
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:32	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:53	0:00
T. Harley	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	24:52	6:40
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	23:33	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	21:26	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:17	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:28	1:32
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	2	11:30	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	41	38	3	.927	60:58	OT loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	1	2	3	5	1	1	+1	2	24:35	6:04
M. Rossi	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	0	17:44	2:04
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	20:52	5:10
M. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	2	3	2	-1	0	17:28	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	2	13:28	2:22
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:50	3:30
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	19:08	5:26
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:46	4:24
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	11:00	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	9:08	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	7:46	1:36
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	7:12	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:54	1:35
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	25:45	0:08
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	2	25:31	0:41
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	16:52	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:03	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	25	23	2	.920	60:58	Win
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSam Steel DAL Faces MIN, his team until Apr 20230 SOG
HometownJake Oettinger DAL Plays near home (born in Lakeville)38 saves on 41

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.1, MIN 3.0	DAL 2, MIN 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	DAL 27.5, MIN 29.8	DAL 25, MIN 41
Win chance	DAL 50%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	5	0.84	3	29%	1
DAL J. Robertson	2.4	1	0.85	1	30%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	4	0.88	1	31%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	2	0.50	1	21%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.2	2	0.77	1	22%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.2	2	0.69	0	28%	0
DAL T. Harley	2.2	2	0.55	1	12%	1
DAL R. Hintz	1.9	0	0.78	0	29%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.9	1	0.55	1	21%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.8	3	0.50	0	17%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	0	0.72	1	25%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.8	2	0.40	1	9%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	3	0.36	0	8%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.7	5	0.58	2	22%	1
MIN J. Brodin	1.6	1	0.30	0	6%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.6	2	0.45	0	19%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.5	3	0.58	0	14%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.4	3	0.52	0	18%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.4	1	0.32	0	14%	0
MIN G. Nyquist	1.3	2	0.48	0	16%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.3	2	0.41	1	18%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	1	0.29	1	6%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.3	0	0.38	0	15%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	1	0.33	0	13%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
DAL C. Ceci	1.0	2	0.24	0	4%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	4	0.19	0	11%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	0	0.26	0	9%	0
DAL M. Dumba	1.0	3	0.15	0	4%	0
MIN J. Brazeau	0.9	0	0.20	0	11%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	0.9	1	0.15	0	4%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	2	0.14	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.8	0	0.18	0	2%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.8	3	0.16	0	6%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.21	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.