Game Recap: DAL 2, MIN 5, December 11, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

DAL2

FinalThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night

MIN5

MIN beat DAL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.62 expected goals to 1.22. MIN outshot DAL 32 to 18. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). F. Gustavsson stopped 16 of 18.

Team Stats

DALMIN

18Shots on goal32

1.22Expected goals4.62

55Shot attempts64

125v5 shots on goal27

1/1Power play0/3

12Hits26

14Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways17

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 1.22 xGMIN 4.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL18 on goal, 2 scored

MIN30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-3	0	18:44	0:41
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	5	1	2	-3	0	16:29	0:41
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	11:38	0:00
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	18:08	0:41
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:35	0:00
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	15:14	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:08	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	14:16	0:41
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:57	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	13:40	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:35	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:47	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	1	1	2	2	0	3	-1	0	26:11	0:41
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	25:13	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-3	0	22:43	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	20:03	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:04	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	30	27	3	.900	58:40	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	1	2	3	5	1	0	+2	0	22:24	4:47
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	0	21:34	4:23
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	2	2	3	1	1	+1	0	17:58	4:07
M. Johansson	LW	2	0	2	2	0	0	+3	0	16:53	1:13
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	25:19	4:47
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	14:56	1:37
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	14:45	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:29	1:52
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:42	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	9:38	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	7:59	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	6:19	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	20:06	2:29
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	16:51	1:13
Z. Bogosian	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+2	0	16:19	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+3	0	24:29	3:31
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+3	0	20:59	0:01
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	16:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	18	16	2	.889	60:00	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1W. Johnston17:01M. Rantanen16:40S. Steel13:00

Line 2R. Hintz12:48J. Robertson15:01J. Benn12:53

Line 3M. Bourque13:24J. Hryckowian13:10O. Bäck9:58

Line 4C. Blackwell8:50R. Faksa8:54M. Duchene14:41

Pair 1E. Lindell19:24M. Heiskanen20:07

Pair 2A. Petrovic18:39T. Harley21:26

Pair 3K. Capobianco12:04V. Kolyachonok11:55

MIN

Line 1J. Ek15:43M. Boldy16:09M. Johansson15:07

Line 2R. Hartman13:19Y. Trenin14:45L. Ohgren9:38

Line 3K. Kaprizov19:45D. Yurov12:37V. Tarasenko13:18

Line 4T. Pitlick7:59N. Sturm11:09B. Jones6:19

Pair 1B. Faber19:30J. Brodin19:30

Pair 2J. Spurgeon17:04D. Hunt16:39

Pair 3Z. Bogosian15:46Z. Buium15:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJake Oettinger DAL Plays near home (born in Lakeville)27 saves on 30

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.8, MIN 2.7	DAL 2, MIN 5
Total goals	5.5	7
Shots on goal	DAL 26.4, MIN 28.4	DAL 18, MIN 32
Win chance	DAL 51%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	4	1.16	1	42%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	5	0.92	3	32%	1
DAL J. Robertson	3.2	5	0.98	1	35%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.1	5	0.70	2	25%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.5	2	0.71	2	12%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	3	0.97	0	32%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	1	0.73	1	29%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	1	0.48	0	20%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	0	0.74	0	28%	0
MIN B. Faber	2.0	1	0.40	0	11%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	3	0.48	2	19%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.7	2	0.52	2	17%	2
DAL T. Harley	1.6	0	0.42	0	9%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	0	0.47	0	17%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.4	2	0.26	0	13%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.4	1	0.31	1	8%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.4	1	0.32	1	8%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.4	1	0.36	0	14%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.4	1	0.24	0	5%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.4	1	0.29	0	13%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.4	0	0.52	0	20%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.3	0	0.30	0	7%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	1	0.30	0	10%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	2	0.26	0	11%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.1	2	0.14	0	8%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.0	0	0.31	1	6%	0
MIN N. Sturm	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.20	0	10%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	3	0.14	1	3%	1
MIN B. Jones	0.9	0	0.05	0	5%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
DAL V. Kolyachonok	0.8	1	0.19	0	5%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	0	0.23	1	8%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	0	0.21	0	7%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.6	1	0.11	0	5%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	1	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.