Game Recap: DAL 1, MIN 2 (OT), March 21, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL1

Final/OTSat, Mar 21, 2026Every game that night

MIN2

MIN beat DAL 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.02 expected goals to 2.56. B. Brink led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Faber had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. F. Gustavsson stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	1	0	0	0	1
MIN	0	1	0	1	2

1st 14:21DALJ. RobertsonPP0.04 xG
2nd 10:45MINB. Brink0.34 xG
OT 3:06MINV. Tarasenko0.18 xG

Team Stats

DALMIN

30Shots on goal28

2.56Expected goals3.02

69Shot attempts53

195v5 shots on goal23

1/5Power play0/2

25Hits36

15Blocked shots22

6Penalty minutes12

10Giveaways16

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.56 xGMIN 3.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL30 on goal, 1 scored

MIN26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	2	25:51	6:36
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	-1	0	18:01	6:10
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	22:25	6:06
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	19:25	2:09
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:47	5:31
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	15:09	1:46
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:40	2:25
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:45	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	12:31	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:22	0:15
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	10:42	0:13
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9:16	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	25:00	5:36
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	23:40	2:36
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	21:09	1:15
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	16:44	0:17
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:16	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	2	14:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	28	26	2	.929	63:06	OT loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Brink	RW	1	1	2	1	2	2	+2	4	12:52	1:12
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	17:39	2:47
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	4	3	3	0	0	24:22	3:04
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	16:57	2:51
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:15	0:56
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	4	14:33	2:57
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	14:09	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	13:31	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:58	1:10
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	12:30	0:00
H. Haight	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:41	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+2	0	27:20	3:22
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	24:03	1:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	5	2	2	0	0	24:29	0:38
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	18:47	0:03
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	16:05	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	30	29	1	.967	63:06	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson17:42W. Johnston15:27M. Bourque15:34

Line 2J. Benn10:13M. Duchene10:58M. Bunting11:15

Line 3A. Erne10:29O. Bäck10:34N. Bastian9:16

Line 4C. Blackwell10:14S. Steel9:56J. Hryckowian10:53

Pair 1N. Lundkvist16:27T. Harley18:01

Pair 2T. Myers15:20L. Bichsel14:03

Pair 3M. Heiskanen15:57E. Lindell16:46

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman13:15V. Tarasenko14:00M. Zuccarello10:40

Line 2M. Johansson13:56M. Boldy15:32D. Yurov11:48

Line 3N. Foligno9:41M. McCarron11:04B. Brink11:08

Line 4Y. Trenin11:09N. Sturm9:57H. Haight10:41

Pair 1J. Spurgeon19:18Q. Hughes21:32

Pair 2J. Brodin15:36B. Faber19:17

Pair 3Z. Bogosian8:56J. Middleton11:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJake Oettinger DAL Plays near home (born in Lakeville)26 saves on 28

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.0, MIN 2.9	DAL 1, MIN 2
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	DAL 26.5, MIN 27.9	DAL 30, MIN 28
Win chance	DAL 51%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	4	1.00	1	35%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	4	0.98	0	33%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.6	1	0.97	2	14%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	3	0.79	0	32%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	4	0.53	0	22%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	1	0.82	0	22%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	4	0.67	1	10%	0
DAL M. Bourque	2.0	1	0.48	0	18%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	2	0.55	1	22%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.8	5	0.41	0	10%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	0	0.48	0	11%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	1	0.74	1	26%	0
DAL M. Bunting	1.7	2	0.44	0	18%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.6	1	0.62	0	21%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.3	1	0.44	2	16%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	2	0.28	1	8%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.2	1	0.45	0	14%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.38	0	12%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	4	0.38	0	15%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.2	4	0.21	0	5%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.2	1	0.18	0	3%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	1	0.25	0	6%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.1	0	0.21	0	9%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	0	0.31	0	6%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.1	0	0.36	0	14%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	2	0.21	0	9%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
MIN H. Haight	1.0	2	0.21	0	9%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.9	0	0.17	0	9%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.9	0	0.28	0	11%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	2	0.19	0	5%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	0	0.15	0	4%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.7	1	0.19	0	9%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	2	0.17	0	6%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.17	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.