Game Recap: DAL 4, MIN 3 (OT), April 22, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL4

Final/OTWed, Apr 22, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

MIN3

DAL beat MIN 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.76 expected goals to 1.78. J. Robertson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Rantanen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Oettinger stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	2OT	T
DAL	2	0	1	0	1	4
MIN	1	2	0	0	0	3

1st 1:25DALM. RantanenPP0.12 xG
1st 13:48DALJ. Robertson0.10 xG
1st 18:20MINM. JohanssonPP0.13 xG
2nd 5:00MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.17 xG
2nd 17:25MINM. McCarron0.07 xG
3rd 10:18DALM. DuchenePP0.10 xG
2OT 12:10DALW. JohnstonPP0.09 xG

Team Stats

DALMIN

36Shots on goal31

3.76Expected goals1.78

71Shot attempts75

185v5 shots on goal22

3/8Power play1/7

34Hits37

30Blocked shots17

16Penalty minutes18

16Giveaways16

4Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.76 xGMIN 1.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL36 on goal, 4 scored

MIN30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	1	2	3	5	2	0	+1	2	29:05	10:54
M. Duchene	C	1	2	3	2	1	1	+1	0	27:39	10:40
W. Johnston	C	1	1	2	4	2	1	0	0	30:12	11:05
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	2	6	0	1	0	2	27:14	11:04
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	22:58	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	20:59	1:24
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	3	4	1	-1	0	20:35	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:38	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	19:15	1:42
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	4	18:56	1:35
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	2	5	0	2	18:52	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:53	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	2	0	5	0	0	43:05	10:57
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	4	30:16	1:24
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	29:23	1:39
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	-1	0	25:22	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	23:06	0:01
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	22:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	31	28	3	.903	92:10	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	4	2	1	+2	2	34:44	9:19
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	2	32:44	10:06
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	2	22:32	5:10
M. Johansson	LW	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	21:49	3:06
M. McCarron	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	20:36	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	0	6	0	+2	2	16:46	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	36:22	11:43
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	4	24:46	3:54
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	23:22	7:56
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	16:23	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	15:02	0:46
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	9:00	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	2	43:47	12:01
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	4	2	4	+1	2	28:41	0:06
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	38:56	1:34
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	33:30	2:34
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:16	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	36	32	4	.889	92:10	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson18:11M. Duchene16:59M. Bourque19:35

Line 2W. Johnston18:43J. Hryckowian16:39M. Rantanen15:54

Line 3S. Steel18:10A. Hyry17:15J. Benn17:21

Line 4R. Faksa12:54O. Bäck12:41C. Blackwell12:44

Pair 1T. Harley23:15N. Lundkvist23:05

Pair 2E. Lindell20:45M. Heiskanen21:58

Pair 3T. Myers20:22L. Bichsel22:19

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman20:10B. Brink17:22K. Kaprizov24:39

Line 2M. Boldy20:52J. Ek18:04M. Johansson18:43

Line 3V. Tarasenko15:26D. Yurov14:16N. Foligno13:54

Line 4M. McCarron12:46M. Foligno12:24N. Sturm8:38

Pair 1Q. Hughes31:41B. Faber29:43

Pair 2J. Brodin23:29J. Spurgeon25:18

Pair 3Z. Bogosian11:09J. Middleton10:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJake Oettinger DAL Plays near home (born in Lakeville)28 saves on 31, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.0, MIN 3.0	DAL 4, MIN 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	DAL 25.6, MIN 28.0	DAL 36, MIN 31
Win chance	MIN 51%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.2	5	0.99	3	35%	1
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.1	2	1.12	0	41%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.0	4	0.91	1	32%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.6	4	0.69	1	25%	1
MIN Q. Hughes	2.4	4	1.05	1	14%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	4	0.84	2	33%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	3	0.59	0	24%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.1	6	1.00	2	31%	1
MIN B. Faber	2.0	1	0.49	0	12%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.9	2	0.65	1	10%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.8	2	0.54	0	22%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	2	0.79	3	26%	1
DAL M. Bourque	1.7	4	0.45	0	18%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	2	0.49	0	11%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	2	0.47	1	14%	1
MIN B. Brink	1.3	0	0.42	1	15%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.2	1	0.22	1	11%	1
DAL A. Hyry	1.2	3	0.26	0	12%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.2	0	0.20	0	4%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.2	1	0.45	0	16%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.37	0	11%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	2	0.31	0	6%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	2	0.30	0	8%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	4	0.26	1	6%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	0	0.24	0	5%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	0	0.37	0	15%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	1	0.33	0	14%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	1	0.21	0	9%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.9	0	0.29	1	11%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	1	0.20	0	5%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	1	0.23	0	7%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.7	0	0.15	0	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	2	0.19	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.