Game Recap: DAL 2, MIN 3 (OT), April 25, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL2

Final/OTSat, Apr 25, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

MIN3

MIN beat DAL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.77 expected goals to 3.87. B. Faber led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Myers had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Wallstedt stopped 43 of 45.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	1	1	0	0	2
MIN	1	0	1	1	3

1st 5:35DALJ. RobertsonPP0.59 xG
1st 13:52MINB. Faber0.02 xG
2nd 19:25DALM. HeiskanenPP0.08 xG
3rd 14:40MINM. Foligno0.81 xG
OT 19:31MINM. Boldy0.10 xG

Team Stats

DALMIN

45Shots on goal43

3.87Expected goals3.77

83Shot attempts85

405v5 shots on goal39

2/2Power play0/4

22Hits42

21Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways19

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.87 xGMIN 3.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL44 on goal, 2 scored

MIN42 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	0	2	2	2	3	1	0	0	22:59	2:44
M. Duchene	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	0	0	21:33	2:44
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	25:13	2:44
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	24:30	2:44
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	2	20:50	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	20:10	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	17:49	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:41	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	16:52	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	16:46	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:34	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:26	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	1	0	1	6	0	1	-2	0	33:33	2:44
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	-3	0	34:17	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	6	1	1	0	0	28:49	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	6	1	5	-1	0	27:25	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	21:36	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	10:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	43	40	3	.930	79:31	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	2	2	4	1	0	+2	0	28:35	5:33
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	4	3	1	+1	0	29:52	5:17
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	7	5	1	+1	2	22:42	2:21
M. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	2	7	0	+1	0	12:25	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	11:20	0:04
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	+1	0	28:44	5:39
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	0	23:43	2:42
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	23:34	5:13
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	+1	0	16:49	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:24	2:24
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	15:34	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:07	0:00
B. Faber	D	1	1	2	5	2	4	+2	2	35:47	2:40
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	26:40	2:34
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	37:21	5:20
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	25:42	0:13
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:26	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	14:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	45	43	2	.956	79:31	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1W. Johnston21:24J. Hryckowian19:45M. Rantanen20:15

Line 2J. Robertson22:29M. Duchene18:49M. Bourque20:50

Line 3S. Steel14:56A. Hyry15:06J. Benn13:26

Line 4R. Faksa13:16C. Blackwell14:10O. Bäck12:04

Pair 1E. Lindell28:06M. Heiskanen25:28

Pair 2T. Myers24:53L. Bichsel21:26

Pair 3T. Harley27:11N. Lundkvist10:21

MIN

Line 1J. Ek22:19M. Boldy23:48K. Kaprizov23:02

Line 2R. Hartman20:21B. Brink18:21M. Johansson21:01

Line 3M. McCarron14:52N. Sturm11:16M. Foligno12:25

Line 4V. Tarasenko14:00D. Yurov11:07N. Foligno13:36

Pair 1Q. Hughes32:01B. Faber32:03

Pair 2J. Spurgeon22:42J. Brodin24:43

Pair 3Z. Bogosian13:12J. Middleton13:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJake Oettinger DAL Plays near home (born in Lakeville)40 saves on 43

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.0, MIN 3.1	DAL 2, MIN 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	DAL 26.2, MIN 28.2	DAL 45, MIN 43
Win chance	MIN 51%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.5	7	1.08	1	37%	1
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	4	1.24	2	45%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	4	1.01	1	35%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.0	4	0.78	0	28%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.7	2	1.15	0	15%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	3	0.92	0	35%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.4	7	0.62	1	25%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	2	1.06	2	33%	0
MIN B. Faber	2.2	5	0.53	2	13%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	6	0.73	1	11%	1
MIN V. Tarasenko	2.0	1	0.60	0	24%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	3	0.88	2	28%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.9	2	0.47	0	19%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	6	0.49	0	11%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	5	0.50	0	15%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.4	0	0.28	0	13%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.4	1	0.46	0	17%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.25	0	12%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	2	0.34	1	9%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.3	0	0.48	0	17%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.2	6	0.21	0	4%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	3	0.33	0	7%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	2	0.40	0	12%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.2	1	0.25	0	5%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	0	0.39	0	16%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	2	0.27	1	14%	1
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	0	0.32	0	14%	0
MIN N. Foligno	1.0	0	0.31	0	12%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.9	3	0.26	0	8%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	0	0.20	0	5%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	1	0.18	0	7%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	2	0.20	1	9%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	0	0.21	0	8%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.7	2	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.8 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.