Game Recap: DAL 2, MIN 5, April 30, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

DAL2

FinalThu, Apr 30, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

MIN5

MIN beat DAL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.76 expected goals to 2.00. Q. Hughes led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Bourque had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Wallstedt stopped 21 of 23.

Team Stats

DALMIN

23Shots on goal21

2.00Expected goals2.76

49Shot attempts48

185v5 shots on goal15

1/2Power play0/3

34Hits32

14Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes4

9Giveaways10

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.00 xGMIN 2.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL23 on goal, 2 scored

MIN19 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	23:26	2:24
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	0	3	3	-3	2	21:46	2:24
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-3	2	19:03	2:26
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	5	5	0	0	0	15:09	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	9:11	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	24:45	2:26
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	4	6	2	0	0	15:35	0:02
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:35	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	11:52	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	11:46	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	7:12	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	7:08	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	14:32	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-4	0	28:01	2:26
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-3	0	25:25	0:02
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:14	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:55	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	11:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	19	16	3	.842	57:30	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	2	0	2	5	1	2	+2	0	24:08	4:32
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:05	4:06
M. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	0	6	1	+1	0	11:15	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	11:01	0:55
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	8:59	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	+2	0	22:11	4:25
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	+2	0	20:00	2:42
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	18:32	2:38
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:17	0:48
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	11:41	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	5	2	+1	0	10:22	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	2	10:18	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	2	1	3	3	0	2	+2	0	28:55	4:39
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+3	0	29:53	0:41
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	19:26	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:54	1:14
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:37	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	23	21	2	.913	59:07	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson19:17W. Johnston18:43M. Rantanen16:16

Line 2M. Duchene14:31S. Steel10:58J. Benn9:42

Line 3J. Hryckowian12:37M. Bourque13:48O. Bäck8:37

Line 4C. Blackwell5:12R. Faksa5:31

Pair 1T. Harley22:01M. Heiskanen20:04

Pair 2E. Lindell16:56I. Lyubushkin14:32

Pair 3A. Petrovic11:22L. Bichsel11:37

MIN

Line 1J. Ek14:17M. Boldy15:39M. Johansson13:04

Line 2M. Zuccarello13:58K. Kaprizov15:08R. Hartman15:54

Line 3N. Foligno8:59M. Foligno10:44N. Sturm8:05

Line 4M. McCarron10:01Y. Trenin9:25V. Tarasenko9:14

Pair 1B. Faber23:54Q. Hughes23:22

Pair 2J. Middleton15:25J. Spurgeon15:56

Pair 3J. Petry7:13Z. Bogosian10:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJake Oettinger DAL Plays near home (born in Lakeville)16 saves on 19

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.1, MIN 3.1	DAL 2, MIN 5
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	DAL 26.7, MIN 29.0	DAL 23, MIN 21
Win chance	MIN 52%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.7	2	1.11	0	39%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.6	5	1.04	2	36%	2
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	1	1.23	0	44%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.2	3	0.81	0	29%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.7	3	0.93	1	36%	1
MIN Q. Hughes	2.7	3	1.13	3	14%	2
MIN R. Hartman	2.4	0	0.62	0	25%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.4	2	0.75	0	12%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.4	0	1.08	1	33%	0
MIN B. Faber	2.3	0	0.57	1	14%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	2	0.48	0	11%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	0	0.89	1	28%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.9	2	0.80	1	21%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	2	0.56	1	22%	1
DAL M. Bourque	1.9	5	0.45	1	19%	1
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	0	0.50	0	15%	0
DAL M. Bunting	1.4	1	0.33	1	14%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.4	0	0.36	0	9%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.4	3	0.26	0	12%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	0	0.33	0	7%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.3	0	0.47	0	17%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.37	0	12%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	4	0.37	0	15%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	0	0.24	0	10%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	0	0.27	1	13%	0
MIN N. Foligno	1.0	1	0.32	0	12%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	1	0.22	0	9%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.9	0	0.13	0	3%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.9	0	0.26	0	8%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
MIN J. Petry	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	1	0.21	0	5%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.20	1	9%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.7	0	0.15	0	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.20	0	8%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.14	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.