Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
DAL2
MTL1
DAL beat MTL 2-1 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.47 expected goals to 2.50. L. Stankoven had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Oettinger stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Team Stats
DALMTL
36Shots on goal31
3.47Expected goals2.50
62Shot attempts67
305v5 shots on goal28
0/1Power play1/3
8Hits30
21Blocked shots20
8Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways12
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.47 xGMTL 2.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:11 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:28 | 0:49 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:10 | 1:11 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:48 | 1:11 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:58 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:49 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 1:02 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:49 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:12 | 2:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 23:26 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 65:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 3:07 |
| P. Laine | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 3:07 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:05 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:42 | 1:27 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:29 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 3:06 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:52 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:06 | 1:25 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:28 | 0:02 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:54 | 3:06 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:22 | 1:25 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:36 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:03 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 36 | 35 | 1 | .972 | 64:54 | OT loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.6, MTL 2.6 | DAL 2, MTL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 30.6, MTL 24.9 | DAL 36, MTL 31 |
| Win chance | DAL 65% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.8 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.4 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 7 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 5 | 0.75 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.1 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.0 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 4 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.6 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.8 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.