Game Recap: DAL 3, NJD 0, December 3, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL3

FinalWed, Dec 3, 2025Every game that night

NJD0

DAL beat NJD 3-0, with the chances close: 2.72 expected goals to 2.21. M. Heiskanen led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Dillon had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. J. Oettinger stopped 30 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	0	2	1	3
NJD	0	0	0	0

2nd 11:34DALM. Heiskanen0.13 xG
2nd 17:36DALJ. Robertson0.15 xG
3rd 7:05DALM. Rantanen0.71 xG

Team Stats

DALNJD

28Shots on goal30

2.72Expected goals2.21

44Shot attempts68

265v5 shots on goal28

0/1Power play0/2

12Hits23

24Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways21

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.72 xGNJD 2.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL28 on goal, 3 scored

NJD30 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Benn	LW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	2	13:10	0:16
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	2	19:00	2:00
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	17:05	2:00
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	16:30	1:42
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	17:52	0:00
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	16:45	1:44
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	14:31	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:26	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:16	0:18
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:14	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:21	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:50	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	2	2	1	1	5	+3	0	25:31	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+3	0	24:34	2:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	18:29	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:55	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	2	17:05	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	30	30	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Bratt	LW	4	2	0	-2	0	19:34	3:59
T. Meier	RW	1	1	1	-3	0	19:09	3:01
D. Mercer	C	2	1	0	0	0	18:20	3:01
N. Hischier	C	0	1	0	-2	0	18:13	3:08
A. Gritsyuk	RW	3	0	0	0	0	15:09	0:55
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	0	0	15:05	0:00
C. Glass	C	2	0	2	0	0	14:48	0:01
P. Cotter	LW	0	4	2	-1	0	13:49	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	1	1	0	-1	2	13:42	0:57
O. Palat	LW	1	2	0	0	0	13:20	0:53
J. Lammikko	C	1	2	1	0	0	10:27	0:00
L. Glendening	C	1	2	0	0	0	10:10	0:00
S. Nemec	D	1	1	0	0	0	22:37	3:58
L. Hughes	D	2	1	0	0	0	22:23	0:07
D. Hamilton	D	1	2	0	-2	2	21:23	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	4	1	1	-2	0	19:49	0:00
B. Dillon	D	4	2	1	-1	0	16:59	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	1	0	0	-1	0	13:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	28	25	3	.893	60:00	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen17:00S. Steel16:20W. Johnston15:01

Line 2J. Benn12:54R. Hintz14:41J. Robertson15:01

Line 3O. Bäck12:13M. Bourque12:58J. Hryckowian12:37

Line 4C. Blackwell11:20R. Faksa11:05N. Bastian10:50

Pair 1E. Lindell21:35M. Heiskanen20:34

Pair 2I. Lyubushkin16:31V. Kolyachonok17:00

Pair 3A. Petrovic17:54K. Capobianco14:26

NJD

Line 1T. Meier15:52N. Hischier14:04J. Bratt14:55

Line 2C. Brown14:19C. Glass14:47P. Cotter13:49

Line 3A. Gritsyuk14:14D. Mercer14:15O. Palat12:14

Line 4L. Glendening10:10J. Lammikko10:27S. Noesen12:45

Pair 1D. Hamilton21:23J. Siegenthaler19:10

Pair 2B. Dillon15:29L. Hughes20:55

Pair 3D. Cholowski13:03S. Nemec18:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, NJD 3.1	DAL 3, NJD 0
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	DAL 25.3, NJD 30.2	DAL 28, NJD 30
Win chance	NJD 54%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.4	1	0.86	0	35%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.0	1	0.57	0	15%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.9	4	0.94	1	34%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.6	4	1.04	0	26%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	0	0.96	0	33%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.3	3	0.45	0	17%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.2	3	0.70	0	30%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.2	4	0.89	1	30%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	3	0.67	2	10%	1
NJD L. Hughes	2.2	2	0.53	0	7%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	2	0.70	1	27%	0
NJD D. Mercer	2.0	2	0.60	0	25%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.8	1	0.44	0	12%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	1	0.41	0	16%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.4	0	0.47	2	17%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.3	2	0.29	0	12%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	1	0.30	0	13%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	1	0.32	2	8%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.3	2	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.2	1	0.31	0	14%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	1	0.34	0	14%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	0	0.27	0	14%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	0	0.30	0	10%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	3	0.28	0	11%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	4	0.14	0	3%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.8	2	0.20	0	5%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.7	1	0.14	0	7%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	4	0.21	0	5%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.7	0	0.15	0	9%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	1	0.19	0	2%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	0	0.24	0	8%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.7	1	0.13	0	7%	0
DAL V. Kolyachonok	0.6	1	0.16	0	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.21	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.