Game Recap: DAL 4, NSH 3, October 10, 2024

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Game Recap

DAL4

FinalThu, Oct 10, 2024Every game that night

NSH3

DAL beat NSH 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.81 expected goals to 3.99. NSH outshot DAL 36 to 20. L. Stankoven led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Marchessault had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. J. Oettinger stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	0	4	0	4
NSH	0	1	2	3

2nd 2:05DALR. Hintz0.11 xG
2nd 2:24DALJ. Robertson0.10 xG
2nd 3:30NSHF. ForsbergPP0.12 xG
2nd 8:03DALM. MarchmentPP0.14 xG
2nd 18:15DALM. Marchment0.03 xG
3rd 4:37NSHT. Novak0.17 xG
3rd 18:25NSHR. O'Reilly0.12 xG

Team Stats

DALNSH

20Shots on goal36

1.81Expected goals3.99

45Shot attempts70

175v5 shots on goal18

1/4Power play1/6

11Hits21

13Blocked shots16

10Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways22

2Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 1.81 xGNSH 3.99 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL18 on goal, 4 scored

NSH35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Stankoven	C	0	3	3	0	0	1	+2	0	12:29	2:13
R. Hintz	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	16:06	3:40
M. Marchment	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	2	14:09	2:24
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	21:09	3:24
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+2	0	16:45	3:43
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	16:19	2:42
T. Seguin	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:30	2:19
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:34	3:27
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	13:07	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	12:35	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:35	0:00
O. Back	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:04	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	19:23	1:52
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	0	23:31	3:59
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	-1	0	21:45	0:18
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	19:14	0:01
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	4	18:28	0:24
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	12:23	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	36	33	3	.917	59:19	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	0	2	2	6	0	0	+1	2	22:18	7:10
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	4	5	2	0	0	20:34	7:15
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	22:14	7:15
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:09	2:11
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:22	2:17
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	23:01	7:36
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:08	2:10
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	12:41	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	12:22	1:59
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	11:38	0:03
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	10:59	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:28	0:02
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	29:07	7:38
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	-2	0	19:00	1:55
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	18:44	0:04
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	16:27	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:50	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:45	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	20	16	4	.800	57:04	Loss
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMatt Duchene DAL Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20231 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.0, NSH 3.0	DAL 4, NSH 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	DAL 28.7, NSH 30.0	DAL 20, NSH 36
Win chance	NSH 50%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	4.0	4	1.03	2	38%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	3.3	3	0.99	0	36%	0
NSH R. Josi	3.2	4	0.86	1	21%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	3.2	6	0.80	2	34%	0
DAL W. Johnston	3.2	4	0.76	1	31%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	1	0.97	1	33%	1
DAL T. Seguin	2.8	0	0.65	1	25%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.5	0	0.76	0	13%	0
DAL J. Benn	2.3	1	0.73	0	23%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.2	1	0.76	1	27%	1
NSH B. Skjei	2.2	4	0.46	0	12%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.1	0	0.47	3	17%	0
DAL M. Duchene	2.1	1	0.68	1	26%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	1	0.72	2	29%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	1	0.40	1	16%	0
DAL M. Marchment	2.0	3	0.55	2	21%	2
NSH G. Nyquist	1.9	1	0.81	0	22%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	4	0.45	1	11%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.6	0	0.26	0	12%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.5	2	0.31	0	8%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.5	2	0.36	0	14%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	3	0.39	0	14%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.4	2	0.26	0	13%	0
NSH P. Tomasino	1.3	3	0.39	0	13%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.3	0	0.29	0	5%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.3	2	0.17	0	5%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	0	0.24	0	9%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.2	2	0.44	1	15%	1
NSH L. Schenn	1.2	0	0.15	0	4%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.1	0	0.27	0	12%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.27	0	10%	0
NSH D. Fabbro	1.0	1	0.16	0	3%	0
DAL M. Dumba	1.0	0	0.14	0	5%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.17	0	2%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.4	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.