NSH beat DAL 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.69 expected goals to 2.46. R. O'Reilly led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Hintz had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Saros stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NSH | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 0:16DALM. Marchment0.14 xG
- 1st 13:02NSHJ. Oesterle0.01 xG
- 1st 13:51NSHJ. Vrana0.07 xG
- 1st 19:45NSHJ. Barron0.09 xG
- 2nd 6:31NSHJ. Marchessault0.22 xG
- 2nd 9:49NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.16 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.46 xGNSH 3.69 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 6:14 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 2:59 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:48 | 2:48 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:15 | 6:43 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 | 6:43 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:33 | 6:34 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 3:03 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 6:12 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:45 | 1:28 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:23 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:31 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:06 | 2:21 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:29 | 3:35 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:54 | 0:33 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:34 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:31 | 0:07 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 22 | 17 | 5 | .773 | 40:00 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 12 | 12 | 0 | 1.000 | 20:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:32 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:54 | 2:14 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 2:22 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:59 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 2:13 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:26 | 2:00 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 10:38 | 0:05 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:45 | 2:21 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:51 | 2:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 21:30 | 2:36 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:54 | 2:08 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.2, NSH 3.1 | DAL 1, NSH 5 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 26.0, NSH 32.0 | DAL 30, NSH 34 |
| Win chance | DAL 52% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.4 | 0 | 0.94 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.5 | 1 | 0.70 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.4 | 0 | 0.97 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.4 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 3 | 1.03 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.3 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.3 | 4 | 0.52 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 2.2 | 6 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 2 | 0.68 | 3 | 24% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.9 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.8 | 7 | 0.85 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 0 | 0.86 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.7 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.6 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.6 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.6 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.5 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH J. Vrana | 1.4 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH J. Oesterle | 1.2 | 3 | 0.19 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 1.1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.