Game Recap: DAL 3, NSH 2, October 26, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL3

FinalSun, Oct 26, 2025Every game that night

NSH2

DAL beat NSH 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.42 expected goals to 2.17. J. Robertson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. DeSmith stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	0	2	1	3
NSH	1	1	0	2

1st 8:02NSHJ. MarchessaultPP0.06 xG
2nd 7:15NSHS. Stastney0.09 xG
2nd 9:36DALO. Bäck0.08 xG
2nd 16:29DALW. Johnston0.15 xG
3rd 10:44DALM. RantanenPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

DALNSH

28Shots on goal25

3.42Expected goals2.17

51Shot attempts57

205v5 shots on goal17

1/5Power play1/2

23Hits29

14Blocked shots6

4Penalty minutes10

14Giveaways16

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.42 xGNSH 2.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL27 on goal, 3 scored

NSH25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	4	2	2	+1	0	24:41	6:36
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	2	21:32	6:53
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	2	21:21	4:40
M. Bourque	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	16:22	2:43
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	10:19	0:00
O. Bäck	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	8:28	0:00
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:41	5:09
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	18:10	1:58
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:58	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	11:23	1:50
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	9:41	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	8:10	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	+1	0	25:17	2:51
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	25:20	5:13
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:00	1:23
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:58	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:50	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	21:22	1:31
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	2	20:22	1:31
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	3	5	0	-2	0	17:27	0:50
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:48	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:06	0:00
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:11	1:26
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	2	14:23	0:05
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	14:08	0:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	2	11:59	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:38	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:21	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:03	0:00
S. Stastney	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:31	0:06
J. Barron	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	14:08	0:35
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	26:20	1:31
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:48	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	20:13	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	28	25	3	.893	58:03	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson16:19W. Johnston15:42M. Bourque13:39

Line 2T. Seguin13:53M. Rantanen13:33S. Steel13:26

Line 3R. Faksa9:35N. Bastian8:10O. Bäck8:28

Line 4C. Blackwell11:30A. Erne9:41J. Hryckowian9:33

Pair 1T. Harley21:05I. Lyubushkin15:58

Pair 2E. Lindell17:20M. Heiskanen16:44

Pair 3A. Petrovic12:50L. Bichsel11:59

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly15:28F. Forsberg16:14M. Wood9:03

Line 2O. Wiesblatt10:53C. Smith10:58M. McCarron10:02

Line 3J. Marchessault14:40E. Haula12:12M. Bunting10:21

Line 4S. Stamkos12:48L. Evangelista10:48T. Jost10:17

Pair 1N. Hague17:35A. Wilsby16:31

Pair 2B. Skjei17:59N. Perbix15:59

Pair 3S. Stastney14:14J. Barron13:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMavrik Bourque NSH Faces DAL, his team until Apr 20261 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.0, NSH 3.0	DAL 3, NSH 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	DAL 25.7, NSH 30.4	DAL 28, NSH 25
Win chance	DAL 51%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	4	0.96	1	35%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.9	4	1.04	2	35%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.6	3	0.78	1	31%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.6	5	1.13	1	35%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	4	0.83	1	32%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	2	0.80	0	32%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	2	0.66	0	14%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.1	1	0.64	0	24%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	2	0.45	0	12%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	4	0.75	1	26%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	1	0.47	1	16%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	0	0.50	0	20%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	0	0.42	0	18%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	3	0.56	1	14%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	0	0.35	0	12%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.5	0	0.27	0	11%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.5	3	0.36	1	15%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.5	2	0.23	0	4%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.28	0	13%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.3	1	0.33	0	7%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.3	1	0.25	0	11%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	2	0.39	0	12%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	0	0.18	0	4%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	0	0.31	0	8%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.1	2	0.24	1	8%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	1.1	0	0.28	0	9%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	1	0.24	0	10%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.9	0	0.25	1	9%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	0	0.18	0	6%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.8	0	0.09	0	4%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	2	0.18	1	3%	1
DAL A. Erne	0.7	1	0.18	0	7%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.17	0	2%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.6	0	0.14	0	7%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	1	0.20	1	7%	1

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.