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Game Recap
DAL5
NSH4
DAL beat NSH 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 2.95 expected goals to 1.86. M. Bourque led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Oettinger stopped 17 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| NSH | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 6:26DALM. Bourque0.41 xG
- 1st 17:46NSHL. Evangelista0.05 xG
- 2nd 0:13DALR. HintzPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 4:43NSHN. Hague0.02 xG
- 2nd 5:10NSHF. Forsberg0.13 xG
- 3rd 2:20DALJ. Hryckowian0.23 xG
- 3rd 5:11NSHS. StamkosPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 9:33DALA. Erne0.20 xG
- 3rd 10:20DALS. Steel0.14 xG
Team Stats
DALNSH
22Shots on goal21
2.95Expected goals1.86
42Shot attempts45
165v5 shots on goal15
1/5Power play1/4
15Hits23
12Blocked shots6
8Penalty minutes10
9Giveaways20
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.95 xGNSH 1.86 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 22:42 | 4:41 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:42 | 1:03 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:29 | 5:35 |
| S. Steel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 1:51 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 4:37 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:13 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:42 | 0:06 |
| A. Erne | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:57 | 5:17 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 1:59 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:06 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:41 | 5:14 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:45 | 1:27 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 1:31 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:48 | 2:17 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:45 | 2:31 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:58 | 3:36 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:27 | 1:08 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:11 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:47 | 2:16 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 3:42 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:02 | 2:51 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:03 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:03 |
| N. Hague | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:19 | 3:07 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:03 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:52 | 1:40 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 22 | 17 | 5 | .773 | 57:53 | Loss |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1W. Johnston15:10M. Rantanen15:10S. Steel16:06
Line 2M. Bourque11:14J. Hryckowian12:33O. Bäck8:28
Line 3C. Blackwell9:30A. Erne9:22R. Faksa8:05
Line 4R. Hintz8:56J. Robertson8:35T. Seguin10:53
Pair 1I. Lyubushkin16:21T. Harley18:37
Pair 2E. Lindell16:14M. Heiskanen14:16
Pair 3A. Petrovic11:51L. Bichsel12:14
NSH
Line 1R. O'Reilly14:33L. Evangelista15:19F. Forsberg15:37
Line 2S. Stamkos11:38J. Marchessault11:17F. Svechkov9:04
Line 3M. Bunting9:42M. Wood9:31E. Haula11:16
Line 4T. Jost9:52M. McCarron8:51O. Wiesblatt7:21
Pair 1N. Hague19:15N. Blankenburg16:15
Pair 3S. Stastney12:55J. Barron12:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.0, NSH 2.9 | DAL 5, NSH 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 25.6, NSH 29.9 | DAL 22, NSH 21 |
| Win chance | DAL 51% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.3 | 3 | 0.97 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.2 | 2 | 1.16 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.7 | 2 | 0.93 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 2 | 1.22 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.5 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.3 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.3 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.2 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 0 | 0.72 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 1 | 0.72 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.7 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.5 | 3 | 0.34 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH O. Wiesblatt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.