Game Recap: DAL 1, NSH 2, October 3, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL1

FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night

NSH2

NSH beat DAL 2-1, with the chances close: 2.02 expected goals to 2.20. A. Edstrom had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. J. Saros stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	0	0	1
NSH	2	0	0	2

1st 0:47DALM. Heiskanen0.10 xG
1st 4:46NSHS. StamkosPP0.15 xG
1st 15:49NSHN. HoglanderPP0.03 xG

Team Stats

DALNSH

30Shots on goal26

2.20Expected goals2.02

63Shot attempts51

235v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play2/3

29Hits21

13Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes2

10Giveaways11

2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.20 xGNSH 2.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL28 on goal, 1 scored

NSH25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	23:55	1:52
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	22:50	1:26
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	18:50	1:25
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:09	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	16:03	1:24
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	14:30	0:36
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:12	0:34
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:34	0:35
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	12:29	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	10:28	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	9:38	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:29	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	24:35	1:34
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	25:57	0:26
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	2	19:11	0:08
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	19:01	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	15:12	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	26	24	2	.923	58:24	Loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	-1	0	20:02	3:44
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	19:53	3:14
A. Kerfoot	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	16:23	1:24
N. Hoglander	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	11:37	1:15
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:40	3:56
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:05	1:29
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:22	2:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:06	3:22
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	15:19	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	13:59	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:38	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	24:38	3:34
J. Ahcan	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	5:49	1:32
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:00	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:39	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	18:05	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:33	0:00
W. Trudeau	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	30	29	1	.967	59:57	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen20:27W. Johnston19:48J. Hryckowian13:36

Line 2R. Hintz13:06J. Robertson15:46T. Seguin11:56

Line 3S. Steel14:23A. Hyry10:44J. Benn12:38

Line 4C. Blackwell6:37O. Bäck7:01R. Faksa7:28

Pair 1N. Lundkvist17:49T. Harley21:43

Pair 2E. Lindell17:01M. Heiskanen18:23

Pair 3T. Myers13:31L. Bichsel14:18

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos15:00R. O'Reilly13:48A. Kerfoot14:25

Line 2J. Marchessault14:04M. Bourque16:20R. Colton15:07

Line 3J. Drury13:03A. Edstrom13:25F. Forsberg16:20

Line 4M. Wood11:50N. Hoglander10:19

Pair 1R. Josi19:44N. Hague20:16

Pair 2B. Skjei15:46N. Perbix16:18

Pair 3A. Wilsby13:58W. Trudeau12:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 19 overs hit (58%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DAL J. Robertson	3.5	+125	-160	1	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-160	+132	1	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	+148	-160	3	Over
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+104	-120	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+106	-120	4	Over
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	+110	-130	2	Under
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	+110	-140	2	Over
DAL E. Lindell	1.5	+120	-150	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	1.5	+130	-180	2	Over
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.5	+125	-160	1	Under
NSH M. Bourque	1.5	-125	+100	2	Over
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.5	-135	+110	5	Over
NSH M. Wood	1.5	-106	-120	3	Over
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.5	+115	-150	2	Over
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-130	+100	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	1.5	-150	+125	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-125	+104	1	Under
DAL T. Harley	1.5	-140	+110	2	Over
DAL T. Seguin	1.5	-120	-110	3	Over

3 of 34 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
DAL C. Blackwell	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+430	-750	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+155	-180	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+1100	-5000	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+425	-600	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+550	-1200	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+600	-1200	1	Over
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+1700	-5000	0	Under
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
DAL R. Faksa	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+275	-450	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+460	-750	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+240	-350	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+210	-285	1	Over
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+2100	-10000	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+175	-230	0	Under

4 of 15 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+145	-175	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+245	-325	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+105	-140	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-120	-110	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-111	-110	1	Over
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-110	-115	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+146	-165	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+172	-200	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+215	-295	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+240	-295	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+140	-190	1	Over

7 of 16 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-155	+130	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+150	-200	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	-220	+165	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-145	+115	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-220	+170	1	Over
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+148	-175	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+240	-340	1	Over
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	-115	-105	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-155	+125	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-135	+110	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-136	+115	1	Over
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+130	-145	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	-145	+125	1	Over

4 of 15 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+165	-250	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+140	-200	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+160	-240	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+145	-215	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+220	-375	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+160	-240	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+210	-350	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+190	-290	1	Over
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+210	-350	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	25.5	-110	-120	29	Over
DAL C. DeSmith	24.5	-105	-115	24	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DAL E. Lindell	2.5	+140	-200	2	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMavrik Bourque NSH Faces DAL, his team until Apr 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.1, NSH 3.0	DAL 1, NSH 2
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	DAL 26.5, NSH 26.9	DAL 30, NSH 26
Win chance	DAL 52%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.6	1	1.10	0	37%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.8	1	0.91	0	34%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.8	2	0.94	1	35%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	0	0.81	1	19%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	4	0.81	1	34%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	3	1.07	1	32%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	2	0.69	0	25%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.0	3	0.59	0	25%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	1	0.81	1	25%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	5	0.71	1	12%	1
NSH M. Bourque	1.9	2	0.49	0	20%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	2	0.47	0	12%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.6	3	0.52	0	19%	0
NSH R. Colton	1.5	0	0.29	0	13%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	3	0.41	0	18%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.4	2	0.39	0	10%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	1	0.40	0	16%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.2	2	0.46	0	16%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	2	0.35	0	11%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	1	0.28	0	4%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	1.1	1	0.41	1	14%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.1	1	0.19	0	4%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.1	2	0.30	1	14%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.0	0	0.30	0	7%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.0	0	0.26	0	9%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.21	0	8%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.23	0	5%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.9	2	0.21	0	5%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	1	0.23	0	7%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	0.8	4	0.16	0	9%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	2	0.19	0	7%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.16	0	7%	0
NSH J. Ahcan	0.5	0	0.11	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.