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Game Recap
DAL4
NYI3
DAL beat NYI 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.29 expected goals to 2.95. NYI outshot DAL 37 to 29. J. Robertson scored three for DAL. S. Holmstrom had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Oettinger stopped 34 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| NYI | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 2:10DALS. Steel0.22 xG
- 2nd 3:44NYIP. Engvall0.18 xG
- 2nd 8:48DALJ. Robertson0.13 xG
- 2nd 8:55NYIK. Palmieri0.12 xG
- 2nd 15:53DALJ. RobertsonPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 17:28DALJ. RobertsonPP0.49 xG
- 3rd 9:17NYIA. Duclair0.18 xG
Team Stats
DALNYI
29Shots on goal37
4.29Expected goals2.95
69Shot attempts68
225v5 shots on goal32
2/4Power play0/2
10Hits28
12Blocked shots16
19Penalty minutes22
19Giveaways10
7Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 4.29 xGNYI 2.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:12 | 3:17 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 3:05 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 3:16 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:15 | 3:18 |
| S. Steel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:11 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:29 | 1:35 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:44 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:10 | 1:42 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 1:44 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 27:54 | 3:06 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:29 | 1:54 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:08 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 17 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:22 | 2:41 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:06 | 3:19 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 2:41 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:08 | 1:19 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:05 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:41 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 2:51 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 2:11 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:38 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 7:25 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:37 | 2:53 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:26 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 1:33 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 18:11 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 58:07 | Loss |
| J. Skarek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 2.8, NYI 2.7 | DAL 4, NYI 3 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 27.9, NYI 28.5 | DAL 29, NYI 37 |
| Win chance | NYI 50% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.8 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.6 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.5 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.5 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 4 | 0.79 | 3 | 28% | 3 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.0 | 5 | 0.62 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 2.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.9 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.8 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.7 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.7 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.5 | 4 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 4 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.1 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NYI S. Perunovich | 0.8 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.