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Game Recap
DAL5
NYR4
DAL beat NYR 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.80 expected goals to 3.23. DAL outshot NYR 39 to 26. V. Trocheck led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Harley had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Oettinger stopped 22 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| NYR | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 6:56NYRA. Lafrenière0.05 xG
- 1st 9:55NYRV. Trocheck0.12 xG
- 1st 11:24NYRA. Lafrenière0.20 xG
- 1st 12:57DALM. Duchene0.01 xG
- 1st 15:56DALE. DadonovPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 13:14DALJ. Robertson0.06 xG
- 3rd 12:56NYRV. TrocheckPP0.20 xG
- 3rd 17:21DALT. Harley0.14 xG
- OT 2:17DALJ. BennPP0.19 xG
Team Stats
DALNYR
39Shots on goal26
2.80Expected goals3.23
71Shot attempts58
355v5 shots on goal19
2/2Power play1/2
12Hits25
15Blocked shots19
4Penalty minutes4
7Giveaways14
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.80 xGNYR 3.23 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 1:30 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:44 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:52 | 2:10 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 2:18 |
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:16 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:31 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | 2:33 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:54 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:41 | 0:50 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 30:43 | 2:37 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 62:17 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:43 | 2:45 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 22:58 | 2:45 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:43 | 2:45 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 2:45 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:51 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:51 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:51 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:51 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:47 | 2:45 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:02 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:51 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 39 | 34 | 5 | .872 | 62:17 | OT loss |
| L. Domingue | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.2, NYR 2.9 | DAL 5, NYR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 32.1, NYR 28.3 | DAL 39, NYR 26 |
| Win chance | DAL 55% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.9 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.6 | 3 | 1.02 | 3 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 5 | 0.85 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.3 | 6 | 0.61 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.3 | 2 | 0.74 | 3 | 25% | 2 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.2 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.0 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 4 | 0.62 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 1.9 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 6 | 0.43 | 3 | 8% | 1 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.0 | 4 | 0.23 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.8 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.