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Game Recap
DAL5
SEA1
DAL beat SEA 5-1, with the chances close: 3.41 expected goals to 2.74. SEA outshot DAL 36 to 21. M. Rantanen led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. McCann had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Oettinger stopped 35 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:27SEAE. Tolvanen0.02 xG
- 1st 11:50DALJ. Robertson0.05 xG
- 1st 18:24DALR. HintzPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 0:28DALM. MarchmentPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 12:56DALW. Johnston0.25 xG
- 3rd 16:26DALM. RantanenEN0.78 xG
Team Stats
DALSEA
21Shots on goal36
3.41Expected goals2.74
56Shot attempts60
115v5 shots on goal28
2/5Power play0/4
10Hits18
12Blocked shots20
13Penalty minutes13
10Giveaways9
4Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.41 xGSEA 2.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:53 | 4:26 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:37 | 4:17 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:57 | 4:11 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:58 | 1:43 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:07 | 1:49 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:40 | 4:07 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:03 | 1:34 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:13 | 1:36 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:17 | 4:50 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:13 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:04 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:10 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 36 | 35 | 1 | .972 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:47 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:04 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 2:10 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:25 | 4:07 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:41 | 4:09 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 16:06 | 2:59 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:19 | 3:03 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:56 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:00 | 4:11 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:41 | 4:03 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:59 | 4:01 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:10 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:07 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:16 | 3:08 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 20 | 16 | 4 | .800 | 59:31 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.4, SEA 3.2 | DAL 5, SEA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 27.3, SEA 30.3 | DAL 21, SEA 36 |
| Win chance | DAL 53% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.98 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 5 | 0.43 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.3 | 7 | 0.69 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.2 | 4 | 0.92 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.8 | 2 | 0.83 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.8 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.6 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.5 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.5 | 5 | 0.45 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.4 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.