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Game Recap
DAL3
SEA1
DAL beat SEA 3-1, with the chances close: 2.59 expected goals to 2.84. M. Marchment led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). O. Bäck had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.6. C. DeSmith stopped 35 of 36.
Team Stats
DALSEA
31Shots on goal36
2.59Expected goals2.84
59Shot attempts66
265v5 shots on goal32
0/3Power play0/3
11Hits29
12Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways7
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.59 xGSEA 2.84 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:45 | 2:01 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:51 |
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:52 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 2:37 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 2:37 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 2:43 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 2:34 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 1:56 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:12 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 15:21 | 0:32 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:00 | 3:50 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:05 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 36 | 35 | 1 | .972 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 2:45 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 2:48 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 1:37 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 1:39 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 1:38 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:12 | 2:47 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:39 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:44 | 2:46 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 0:01 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:00 | 2:14 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 22:59 | 2:11 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 58:03 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.3, SEA 3.2 | DAL 3, SEA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 26.9, SEA 30.7 | DAL 31, SEA 36 |
| Win chance | DAL 52% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA B. Montour | 2.6 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 2 | 1.00 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 4 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.9 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.9 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.7 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.4 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 5 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.2 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 1.0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.9 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.