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Game Recap
DAL8
SJS3
DAL beat SJS 8-3, with the chances close: 3.11 expected goals to 2.86. M. Duchene led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Bichsel had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. C. DeSmith stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| SJS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 1:25SJSW. Eklund0.19 xG
- 1st 2:46SJSF. Zetterlund0.27 xG
- 1st 3:02DALM. Duchene0.16 xG
- 1st 10:08DALJ. Robertson0.44 xG
- 1st 13:24DALM. Marchment0.18 xG
- 2nd 7:30DALM. DuchenePP0.05 xG
- 2nd 15:42DALM. Bourque0.09 xG
- 3rd 11:20DALW. Johnston0.09 xG
- 3rd 12:33DALT. Harley0.03 xG
- 3rd 13:00SJSW. Duehr0.38 xG
- 3rd 13:37DALJ. Benn0.18 xG
Team Stats
DALSJS
34Shots on goal27
3.11Expected goals2.86
66Shot attempts63
325v5 shots on goal26
1/2Power play0/2
10Hits27
19Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways18
2Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.11 xGSJS 2.86 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Duchene | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 1:59 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:59 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:40 |
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:34 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:58 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:33 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:28 | 1:52 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:33 |
| T. Harley | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:24 | 1:52 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 4 | 19:27 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:40 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:48 | 2:48 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:07 | 2:34 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 1:21 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 2:47 |
| A. Poturalski | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:16 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:05 | 2:39 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:10 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:11 | 1:03 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:02 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:10 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:54 | 0:10 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:58 | 3:03 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 16:31 | 0:57 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 34 | 26 | 8 | .765 | 60:00 | Loss |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.3, SJS 2.5 | DAL 8, SJS 3 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 30.4, SJS 26.4 | DAL 34, SJS 27 |
| Win chance | DAL 62% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.1 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.8 | 3 | 0.86 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.8 | 3 | 1.01 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.8 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.5 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.3 | 1 | 0.61 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.0 | 2 | 0.87 | 3 | 30% | 2 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 2.0 | 1 | 0.79 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.0 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.70 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.8 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.5 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Poturalski | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.9 | 5 | 0.25 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS W. Duehr | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.