Game Recap: DAL 5, SJS 3, December 18, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL5

FinalThu, Dec 18, 2025Every game that night

SJS3

DAL beat SJS 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.36 expected goals to 3.24. W. Johnston led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Celebrini had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Oettinger stopped 34 of 37.

Team Stats

DALSJS

30Shots on goal37

2.36Expected goals3.24

50Shot attempts69

275v5 shots on goal25

1/1Power play0/3

16Hits30

20Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways20

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.36 xGSJS 3.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL27 on goal, 4 scored

SJS36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	2	0	2	4	1	1	+1	0	18:43	0:36
M. Rantanen	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	2	17:43	0:36
R. Hintz	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	14:35	0:36
J. Hryckowian	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	-1	0	14:07	0:00
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	13:44	0:00
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	16:02	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	5	2	1	+1	0	15:43	0:36
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	15:34	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	14:30	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:57	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	4	11:09	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	10:41	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	2	2	1	0	3	+2	0	25:46	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+2	0	23:48	0:36
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:00	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+1	0	17:54	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	3	5	-2	0	15:58	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	14:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	37	34	3	.919	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	2	2	8	1	0	0	0	24:04	5:00
C. Graf	RW	2	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	19:29	1:53
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	18:39	2:27
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	0	13:31	0:11
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	20:59	3:31
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-3	0	20:31	3:33
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-3	0	18:49	3:58
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:46	1:00
E. Cardwell	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	11:22	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:56	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:52	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	7:36	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	2	11:53	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	26:54	4:03
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	23:40	1:57
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	20:46	2:27
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	17:31	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	29	25	4	.862	58:04	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen16:39W. Johnston17:39M. Duchene15:34

Line 2J. Benn13:06J. Robertson14:29R. Hintz13:09

Line 3M. Bourque13:41J. Hryckowian11:48S. Steel10:03

Line 4C. Blackwell7:57R. Faksa8:20O. Bäck11:52

Pair 1E. Lindell20:01M. Heiskanen17:51

Pair 2N. Lundkvist17:54T. Harley19:48

Pair 3A. Petrovic14:06I. Lyubushkin13:23

SJS

Line 1A. Wennberg15:56W. Eklund15:26T. Toffoli13:19

Line 2I. Chernyshov16:12C. Graf15:28M. Celebrini17:08

Line 3A. Gaudette11:22E. Cardwell10:58T. Dellandrea12:20

Line 4B. Goodrow8:52Z. Ostapchuk9:56R. Reaves7:36

Pair 1D. Orlov21:43J. Klingberg21:00

Pair 2T. Liljegren17:43M. Ferraro16:55

Pair 3V. Iorio13:57S. Mukhamadullin11:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJake Oettinger DAL Turns 27 that day34 saves on 37, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.2, SJS 2.5	DAL 5, SJS 3
Total goals	5.7	8
Shots on goal	DAL 27.1, SJS 26.2	DAL 30, SJS 37
Win chance	DAL 61%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.3	5	1.16	0	40%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.3	8	1.10	2	30%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.7	1	1.20	2	37%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	2	0.66	0	27%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	4	0.89	2	34%	2
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.4	1	0.82	1	14%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	3	0.87	2	32%	1
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	6	0.69	0	20%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.8	3	0.49	0	12%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	1	0.52	0	11%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.6	3	0.58	1	20%	1
DAL M. Duchene	1.5	0	0.67	0	24%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	1	0.40	0	8%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.5	5	0.36	0	15%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	1	0.38	2	9%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	2	0.55	0	16%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	1	0.34	0	17%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.3	0	0.26	0	6%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	3	0.25	0	5%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.3	4	0.42	2	15%	2
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.3	0	0.25	1	9%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	1	0.30	1	12%	1
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.36	0	12%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	2	0.21	0	5%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	1	0.23	0	6%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	1	0.22	1	4%	1
SJS E. Cardwell	0.9	2	0.24	0	13%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	1	0.29	0	9%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.8	0	0.21	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.24	0	9%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.6	1	0.12	0	6%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	0	0.08	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.