Game Recap: DAL 4, SJS 5 (OT), January 10, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL4

Final/OTSat, Jan 10, 2026Every game that night

SJS5

SJS beat DAL 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.31 expected goals to 2.95. SJS outshot DAL 31 to 20. T. Toffoli led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Wennberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 16 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	2	1	1	0	4
SJS	0	2	2	1	5

1st 7:33DALJ. Hryckowian0.20 xG
1st 19:03DALJ. Robertson0.40 xG
2nd 4:44SJSA. WennbergPP0.16 xG
2nd 14:49SJSJ. SkinnerPP0.12 xG
2nd 19:01DALK. Capobianco0.08 xG
3rd 7:53DALM. Rantanen0.14 xG
3rd 9:28SJST. ToffoliPP0.03 xG
3rd 15:01SJSA. Gaudette0.09 xG
OT 1:58SJST. ToffoliPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

DALSJS

20Shots on goal31

2.95Expected goals3.31

42Shot attempts60

155v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play4/6

12Hits21

14Blocked shots11

12Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways18

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.95 xGSJS 3.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL20 on goal, 4 scored

SJS31 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	2	3	2	1	+2	2	21:35	3:15
J. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	18:24	3:12
S. Steel	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	17:35	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	16:43	3:11
M. Bourque	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:59	0:46
J. Hryckowian	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	12:53	0:45
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+2	0	22:06	3:14
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:54	0:50
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:04	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:01	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	8:08	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	8:01	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	14:16	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	10:38	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	29:54	3:26
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	2	26:24	0:34
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:53	0:47
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	16:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	31	26	5	.839	61:53	OT loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	3	3	4	1	1	0	0	27:39	6:20
T. Toffoli	C	2	1	3	5	2	0	-1	0	19:28	5:33
A. Gaudette	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	0	11:01	2:08
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	24:58	5:38
A. Wennberg	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	23:59	6:10
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:34	2:18
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	15:19	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	11:30	2:50
P. Regenda	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	17:04	2:55
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	7:39	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	6:43	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	4:35	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	2	22:07	4:52
S. Dickinson	D	0	1	1	0	4	0	-1	0	16:40	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	22:38	2:35
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	20:24	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	19:11	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	12:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	20	16	4	.800	61:58	Win
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen17:54W. Johnston18:25S. Steel13:18

Line 2M. Bourque15:13J. Robertson15:07R. Hintz12:47

Line 3M. Duchene14:04J. Hryckowian10:36C. Blackwell6:53

Line 4R. Faksa6:24O. Bäck6:19A. Erne8:01

Pair 1E. Lindell19:48M. Heiskanen19:46

Pair 2T. Harley19:46I. Lyubushkin13:05

Pair 3K. Capobianco10:38N. Lundkvist14:16

SJS

Line 1W. Eklund19:18M. Celebrini20:18I. Chernyshov17:16

Line 2T. Toffoli13:50P. Regenda14:04A. Wennberg13:35

Line 3J. Skinner8:40C. Graf12:40A. Gaudette8:53

Line 4B. Goodrow6:22Z. Ostapchuk5:58R. Reaves4:35

Pair 1D. Orlov16:25T. Liljegren18:41

Pair 2N. Leddy16:21S. Dickinson15:47

Pair 3M. Ferraro17:17V. Iorio12:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.5, SJS 2.8	DAL 4, SJS 5
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	DAL 27.2, SJS 26.9	DAL 20, SJS 31
Win chance	DAL 61%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.7	4	1.30	3	34%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.4	3	1.22	2	41%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.7	5	0.73	3	28%	2
DAL M. Rantanen	2.6	3	1.26	2	37%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	3	0.98	0	37%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.5	1	0.75	1	22%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.3	3	0.91	1	33%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	1	0.81	0	14%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.8	3	0.34	0	17%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.8	0	0.40	1	17%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.7	1	0.43	1	19%	1
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.7	3	0.53	1	16%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	2	0.56	0	12%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.6	0	0.68	0	25%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	0	0.47	1	9%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	4	0.33	2	17%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	4	0.59	1	16%	1
SJS C. Graf	1.3	0	0.46	1	18%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	1	0.26	1	6%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	2	0.23	0	5%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	0	0.27	0	6%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.38	1	13%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	0	0.39	0	8%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	2	0.33	1	14%	1
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	0	0.15	1	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	2	0.18	0	9%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	0	0.30	0	9%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.8	0	0.12	0	7%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.8	1	0.20	0	9%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.7	1	0.18	1	5%	1
SJS V. Iorio	0.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	0	0.20	0	2%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.7	0	0.22	0	3%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.23	0	9%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.6	1	0.13	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.