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Game Recap
DAL1
STL3
STL beat DAL 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.77 expected goals to 1.76. J. Binnington stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| STL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 2:27STLJ. Kyrou0.16 xG
- 2nd 13:52STLJ. Snuggerud0.22 xG
- 3rd 17:42DALM. Rantanen0.07 xG
- 3rd 18:59STLP. SuterEN0.35 xG
Team Stats
DALSTL
19Shots on goal22
1.76Expected goals2.77
37Shot attempts45
185v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play0/2
31Hits24
13Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes4
20Giveaways13
3Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 1.76 xGSTL 2.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24:09 | 3:03 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 2:11 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:57 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 2:11 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:00 | 1:45 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:51 | 2:15 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 1:48 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:17 | 1:47 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:54 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:54 | 2:11 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:54 | 1:49 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:03 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 58:50 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:42 | 2:38 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:19 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:04 | 2:38 |
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:20 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:34 | 1:22 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 2:41 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 2:38 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:25 | 1:22 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 9:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:40 | 2:11 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:28 | 0:02 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:57 | 1:49 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1M. Rantanen19:56R. Hintz14:38S. Steel15:07
Line 2J. Robertson16:04W. Johnston16:18M. Bourque12:48
Line 3M. Duchene13:20T. Seguin12:14C. Blackwell7:39
Line 4R. Faksa8:07N. Bastian6:54A. Erne9:44
Pair 1A. Petrovic12:21L. Bichsel14:22
Pair 2M. Heiskanen20:23T. Harley21:06
Pair 3E. Lindell17:51I. Lyubushkin15:18
STL
Line 1D. Holloway17:36R. Thomas16:24J. Neighbours15:03
Line 3P. Buchnevich12:49P. Suter13:28J. Snuggerud14:12
Line 4N. Bjugstad8:04N. Walker8:19A. Texier5:33
Pair 1C. Parayko23:46C. Fowler22:45
Pair 2J. Faulk18:59P. Broberg18:39
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 2.9, STL 3.3 | DAL 1, STL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 24.5, STL 29.0 | DAL 19, STL 22 |
| Win chance | STL 57% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.6 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.5 | 4 | 1.04 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.3 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 2.1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.7 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.7 | 4 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.5 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.4 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.5 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.