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Game Recap
DAL4
STL3
DAL beat STL 4-3, with the chances close: 2.82 expected goals to 2.14. B. Schenn led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Steel had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Oettinger stopped 23 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
- 2nd 3:20DALM. DuchenePP0.11 xG
- 2nd 4:00DALM. Duchene0.04 xG
- 2nd 18:06DALR. HintzPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 3:15STLR. Fabbri0.18 xG
- 3rd 6:22STLB. Schenn0.08 xG
- 3rd 15:50STLB. Schenn0.11 xG
- 3rd 18:53DALT. Harley0.03 xG
Team Stats
DALSTL
24Shots on goal26
2.82Expected goals2.14
57Shot attempts57
195v5 shots on goal25
2/3Power play0/3
12Hits43
20Blocked shots16
2Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways13
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.82 xGSTL 2.14 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:29 | 3:17 |
| M. Duchene | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:32 | 0:19 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | 3:17 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:40 | 2:55 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:07 | 2:58 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:22 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 27:10 | 3:17 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 59:51 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:32 | 2:49 |
| B. Schenn | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:09 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:22 | 3:18 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:30 | 2:50 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 3:22 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 2:31 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:01 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:58 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:06 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 2:14 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:06 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:19 | 0:55 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:44 | 3:13 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:45 | 0:06 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:54 | 2:36 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:27 | 0:11 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:07 | 2:31 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 58:53 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1M. Bourque15:32J. Robertson15:28R. Hintz12:34
Line 2M. Rantanen15:46W. Johnston14:52J. Hryckowian13:34
Line 3J. Benn10:55M. Duchene13:04S. Steel11:51
Line 4C. Blackwell7:57R. Faksa8:44O. Bäck7:58
Pair 1E. Lindell21:37M. Heiskanen19:23
Pair 2T. Harley19:32N. Lundkvist17:57
Pair 3A. Petrovic10:27K. Capobianco10:04
STL
Line 1B. Schenn14:49J. Snuggerud16:36J. Berggren16:50
Line 2P. Buchnevich14:43J. Kyrou9:07J. Neighbours4:24
Line 3D. Dvorsky14:48M. Joseph13:16R. Fabbri13:31
Line 4N. Bjugstad10:38N. Walker9:33A. Toropchenko9:36
Pair 1P. Broberg20:47C. Parayko21:47
Pair 2C. Fowler15:11L. Mailloux14:12
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.1, STL 2.8 | DAL 4, STL 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 24.7, STL 25.1 | DAL 24, STL 26 |
| Win chance | DAL 54% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.1 | 2 | 1.07 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.6 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 1 | 1.09 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.2 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.8 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 4 | 0.56 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.5 | 3 | 0.62 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.4 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL R. Fabbri | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 5 | 0.35 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.5 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.