Game Recap: DAL 4, VAN 1, March 9, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL4

FinalSun, Mar 9, 2025Every game that night

VAN1

DAL beat VAN 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.25 expected goals to 2.85. M. Duchene led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). T. Blueger had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. C. DeSmith stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	0	2	2	4
VAN	0	1	0	1

2nd 5:17DALT. Harley0.03 xG
2nd 11:35VAND. Forbort0.15 xG
2nd 19:34DALM. Granlund0.34 xG
3rd 8:26DALJ. Robertson0.11 xG
3rd 18:52DALM. RantanenEN0.45 xG

Team Stats

DALVAN

19Shots on goal23

2.25Expected goals2.85

41Shot attempts54

135v5 shots on goal18

0/4Power play0/2

12Hits36

15Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes10

22Giveaways6

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.25 xGVAN 2.85 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL19 on goal, 4 scored

VAN23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Duchene	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	16:29	4:37
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	19:44	5:05
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	19:04	3:57
M. Granlund	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	17:02	3:24
E. Dadonov	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:43	0:51
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:51	4:39
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	15:55	3:20
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:08	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	13:36	3:02
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	12:57	2:48
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:39	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:34	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	2	2	2	0	4	+2	0	20:38	0:00
T. Harley	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	21:32	5:20
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:57	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+2	0	20:31	0:17
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:57	2:40
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	15:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	-2	0	18:35	2:38
N. Hoglander	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:46	0:00
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:38	1:16
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-3	0	16:05	2:44
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	15:51	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	15:49	2:44
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	14:48	1:13
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	14:27	0:02
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	14:12	1:17
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	12:45	2:44
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:45	1:17
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-2	2	11:35	0:00
D. Forbort	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	16:14	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	24:49	2:03
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	21:55	0:03
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	4	20:18	1:57
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:44	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	15:43	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	18	15	3	.833	59:01	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey DeSmith DAL Faces VAN, his team until May 202422 saves on 23, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.8, VAN 2.9	DAL 4, VAN 1
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	DAL 25.4, VAN 26.3	DAL 19, VAN 23
Win chance	VAN 51%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	2.7	1	0.93	1	31%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	2	0.95	1	32%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	0	0.76	0	28%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.4	4	0.54	0	21%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.1	1	0.58	1	22%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	1	0.74	0	29%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	1.9	2	0.56	0	26%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	3	0.53	1	14%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	1.8	0	0.77	0	27%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.8	2	0.52	0	20%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	2	0.75	2	25%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.6	0	0.40	0	18%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.6	1	0.35	0	15%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.6	2	0.60	1	13%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	1	0.43	0	7%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	1	0.57	0	19%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.5	2	0.44	0	20%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.4	0	0.26	0	13%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.3	0	0.29	0	4%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.3	1	0.39	1	14%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.3	1	0.34	1	16%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	0	0.27	0	7%	0
VAN V. Mancini	1.2	1	0.22	0	4%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	0	0.24	0	10%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.30	0	10%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.1	2	0.28	0	4%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	4	0.30	0	10%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.0	0	0.34	0	14%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.0	2	0.38	0	18%	0
DAL C. Ceci	0.9	2	0.24	2	6%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.9	1	0.19	0	6%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.15	0	3%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.7	1	0.14	1	4%	1
DAL M. Dumba	0.7	0	0.13	0	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.22	0	8%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.16	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.