Game Recap: DAL 4, VAN 2, November 20, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL4

FinalThu, Nov 20, 2025Every game that night

VAN2

DAL beat VAN 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.47 expected goals to 4.59. VAN outshot DAL 36 to 24. E. Pettersson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Oettinger stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	2	0	2	4
VAN	2	0	0	2

1st 0:55DALM. Bourque0.08 xG
1st 3:06VANL. Karlsson0.07 xG
1st 7:44DALJ. Robertson0.10 xG
1st 14:25VANE. PetterssonPP0.35 xG
3rd 10:47DALC. Blackwell0.20 xG
3rd 18:29DALM. Rantanen0.04 xG

Team Stats

DALVAN

24Shots on goal36

2.47Expected goals4.59

41Shot attempts76

225v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play1/5

21Hits24

20Blocked shots8

10Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways12

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.47 xGVAN 4.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL24 on goal, 4 scored

VAN36 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	2	19:28	2:59
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:43	2:58
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	13:02	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	12:48	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	12:13	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	12:06	1:02
J. Hryckowian	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:39	0:00
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	2	10:30	1:02
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	19:13	2:58
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:34	1:03
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:11	2:57
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:55	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	28:13	2:55
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	7	+2	2	25:48	1:01
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	4	5	+3	0	22:06	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	+2	2	18:57	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:48	1:05
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	10:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	36	34	2	.944	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	6	2	0	-2	0	24:43	6:46
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	6	1	0	-1	0	20:34	6:38
K. Sherwood	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-2	0	15:05	4:29
L. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	2	9:39	1:31
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	23:38	2:25
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	20:57	6:34
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	19:23	2:51
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	13:20	0:01
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	11:27	0:02
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:46	0:02
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:25	0:00
M. MacEachern	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	6:54	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	28:31	7:50
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	23:08	1:24
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	-2	0	19:18	0:01
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:57	0:06
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	13:40	0:15
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	24	20	4	.833	58:32	Loss
J. Patera	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen16:05W. Johnston15:18J. Benn10:55

Line 2T. Seguin14:18J. Robertson14:44R. Hintz11:38

Line 3O. Bäck9:56J. Hryckowian10:02M. Bourque8:57

Line 4C. Blackwell7:56R. Faksa8:16S. Steel10:25

Pair 1E. Lindell19:26M. Heiskanen18:11

Pair 2A. Petrovic19:00L. Bichsel15:43

Pair 3K. Capobianco10:43V. Kolyachonok9:27

VAN

Line 1E. Kane16:23E. Pettersson14:51K. Sherwood10:12

Line 2B. Boeser12:50C. Garland17:50D. Kampf11:49

Line 3J. DeBrusk10:35D. O'Connor11:02A. Räty9:31

Line 4M. Sasson9:21M. MacEachern6:47L. Karlsson8:01

Pair 1Q. Hughes19:04F. Hronek19:08

Pair 2T. Myers16:22M. Pettersson14:55

Pair 3E. Pettersson12:14T. Willander10:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey DeSmith DAL Faces VAN, his team until May 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.1, VAN 3.0	DAL 4, VAN 2
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	DAL 26.0, VAN 26.9	DAL 24, VAN 36
Win chance	DAL 52%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.0	3	1.12	1	36%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.8	2	0.63	0	28%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.8	1	1.00	0	13%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.4	2	1.10	1	33%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.3	6	0.58	1	28%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.2	1	0.81	0	31%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	1	0.87	0	30%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	1	0.73	1	13%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	1	0.66	1	27%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	4	0.73	0	29%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.0	4	0.61	0	22%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.9	1	0.67	0	25%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	6	0.90	1	29%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	5	0.48	0	7%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	1	0.36	0	15%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.3	0	0.29	0	5%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	2	0.33	1	13%	1
VAN L. Karlsson	1.2	2	0.28	1	11%	1
DAL J. Benn	1.2	2	0.42	1	14%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.40	0	12%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	1	0.31	0	8%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	0	0.30	0	15%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	0	0.33	0	14%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	1	0.27	1	12%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.31	0	4%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	2	0.23	1	10%	1
VAN M. MacEachern	0.9	0	0.27	0	8%	0
VAN D. Kampf	0.8	2	0.23	0	9%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	1	0.20	0	7%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.7	0	0.23	0	3%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	1	0.12	0	3%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	1	0.24	1	8%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.6	0	0.13	0	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.24	1	8%	0
DAL V. Kolyachonok	0.6	4	0.17	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.