Game Recap: DAL 6, VAN 1, March 2, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL6

FinalMon, Mar 2, 2026Every game that night

VAN1

DAL beat VAN 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.84 expected goals to 1.51. DAL outshot VAN 37 to 14. L. Bichsel led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Blackwell had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Oettinger stopped 13 of 14.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	2	3	6
VAN	1	0	0	1

1st 7:57VANE. Kane0.72 xG
1st 17:40DALA. Erne0.12 xG
2nd 8:31DALL. Bichsel0.18 xG
2nd 9:41DALJ. RobertsonPP0.10 xG
3rd 1:33DALM. Duchene0.13 xG
3rd 5:40DALC. Blackwell0.17 xG
3rd 15:41DALL. Bichsel0.09 xG

Team Stats

DALVAN

37Shots on goal14

4.84Expected goals1.51

69Shot attempts30

335v5 shots on goal12

1/2Power play0/2

19Hits19

8Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways20

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 4.84 xGVAN 1.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL37 on goal, 6 scored

VAN14 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	19:00	1:32
S. Steel	C	0	2	2	4	2	0	+2	0	14:56	0:00
M. Duchene	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	+2	0	14:51	1:32
C. Blackwell	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	+2	0	13:27	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:15	0:00
A. Erne	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	11:03	0:00
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	17:57	1:32
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	4	14:11	1:32
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:51	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	13:50	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	13:50	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:19	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	+2	0	20:17	1:32
L. Bichsel	D	2	0	2	2	1	0	+2	0	16:49	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	17:26	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	22:34	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	21:26	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	19:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	14	13	1	.929	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Kane	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	17:22	0:23
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:56	2:10
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	19:22	2:16
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	16:13	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	15:58	0:21
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	15:51	2:15
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:49	0:04
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	13:43	2:12
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:14	0:02
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	12:54	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	11:46	0:20
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:06	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-3	0	23:43	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	2	22:33	0:27
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	2	21:00	2:15
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:01	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:58	0:30
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	37	31	6	.838	60:00	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson17:28M. Bourque16:48W. Johnston16:25

Line 2M. Duchene13:19S. Steel13:18J. Benn12:39

Line 3A. Hyry12:19O. Bäck12:17N. Bastian13:50

Line 4A. Erne11:03J. Hryckowian12:24C. Blackwell11:33

Pair 1N. Lundkvist19:56T. Harley20:03

Pair 2E. Lindell17:52M. Heiskanen18:08

Pair 3I. Lyubushkin16:33L. Bichsel16:25

VAN

Line 1E. Kane16:59E. Pettersson16:39J. DeBrusk14:19

Line 2T. Blueger14:34L. Ohgren14:15C. Garland14:19

Line 3B. Boeser13:36D. O'Connor12:54M. Rossi11:31

Line 4L. Karlsson11:26N. Hoglander11:06D. Kampf11:47

Pair 1M. Pettersson22:11T. Willander22:06

Pair 2F. Hronek17:55E. Pettersson17:58

Pair 3Z. Buium18:07P. Joseph10:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey DeSmith DAL Faces VAN, his team until May 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.3, VAN 2.7	DAL 6, VAN 1
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	DAL 26.4, VAN 25.8	DAL 37, VAN 14
Win chance	DAL 59%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.2	4	1.19	2	38%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	3	0.90	0	33%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.3	3	0.49	1	23%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	2	0.49	1	23%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	0	0.63	0	27%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	2	0.74	2	12%	0
DAL M. Bourque	2.0	2	0.50	1	19%	0
VAN C. Garland	1.9	2	0.52	0	19%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	1	0.56	0	13%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	4	0.77	2	26%	1
VAN L. Karlsson	1.7	0	0.46	0	17%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	1	0.32	0	14%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	1	0.50	0	8%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	2	0.56	0	21%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.5	0	0.66	0	23%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.5	1	0.35	0	16%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.4	1	0.59	0	18%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.4	0	0.39	0	12%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.2	2	0.25	0	6%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.2	0	0.38	0	9%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.2	3	0.22	0	9%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	4	0.42	2	12%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	1	0.37	0	8%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	1	0.27	1	4%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	0	0.32	0	7%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.0	1	0.28	0	12%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	0	0.38	0	13%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	4	0.21	2	9%	1
VAN P. Joseph	0.9	0	0.16	0	4%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.8	2	0.18	1	8%	1
DAL N. Bastian	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	2	0.18	2	6%	2
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	2	0.16	1	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	0	0.20	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.