Game Recap: DAL 1, WPG 4, November 9, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

DAL1

FinalSat, Nov 9, 2024Every game that night

WPG4

WPG beat DAL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.90 expected goals to 3.29. DAL outshot WPG 33 to 25. V. Namestnikov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Stankoven had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. C. Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	0	0	1	1
WPG	2	2	0	4

1st 7:28WPGA. IafalloPP0.24 xG
1st 10:21WPGR. Kupari0.26 xG
2nd 3:34WPGV. Namestnikov0.18 xG
2nd 7:14WPGN. EhlersPP0.17 xG
3rd 18:38DALR. Hintz0.05 xG

Team Stats

DALWPG

33Shots on goal25

3.29Expected goals4.90

70Shot attempts49

215v5 shots on goal13

0/4Power play2/5

18Hits18

9Blocked shots17

27Penalty minutes15

15Giveaways13

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.29 xGWPG 4.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL31 on goal, 1 scored

WPG25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	14:54	2:36
E. Dadonov	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:07	2:08
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:53	3:44
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	2	17:05	3:43
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	17:02	3:43
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	16:48	2:41
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	14:53	0:02
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	14:46	2:38
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:35	3:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:46	0:02
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	19	11:03	1:13
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:00	0:02
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	2	20:33	3:18
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:47	3:06
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	21:01	0:02
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	18:08	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:44	0:02
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	15	11	4	.733	29:21	Loss
C. DeSmith	10	10	0	1.000	30:39

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Perfetti	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	2	16:06	2:13
V. Namestnikov	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	2	15:47	2:28
A. Iafallo	LW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	10:04	2:18
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	19:36	4:04
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	16:51	4:10
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:20	3:10
R. Kupari	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	9:17	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	21:13	4:06
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:26	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	2	13:20	2:26
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	11:57	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	11:03	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:38	2:17
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:46	4:21
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	21:44	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:20	0:24
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	15:35	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	2	12:57	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, WPG 3.0	DAL 1, WPG 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	DAL 29.6, WPG 28.9	DAL 33, WPG 25
Win chance	WPG 52%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	2.9	4	0.87	0	33%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	3	0.63	0	27%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.6	3	0.80	0	30%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.5	3	0.72	1	25%	1
DAL T. Seguin	2.3	3	0.59	0	23%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.2	5	0.54	0	17%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	3	0.70	1	30%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	1	0.71	0	13%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	1	0.56	0	9%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.0	3	0.47	0	22%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	1	0.87	1	31%	0
DAL R. Hintz	1.9	4	0.66	1	28%	1
DAL J. Benn	1.9	0	0.62	0	21%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.8	2	0.50	0	20%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	1	0.62	0	24%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	0	0.40	1	7%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	1	0.50	2	18%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	2	0.38	1	8%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.5	2	0.40	1	15%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	0	0.39	0	14%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	0	0.42	0	15%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.3	1	0.22	0	11%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	3	0.24	0	6%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.23	0	5%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	0	0.19	0	5%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.28	0	10%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	0	0.20	0	10%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	0	0.18	0	4%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.0	3	0.40	2	14%	1
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.28	0	4%	0
DAL M. Dumba	1.0	2	0.13	0	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.0	0	0.16	0	3%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.0	3	0.26	2	11%	1
DAL M. Bourque	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	1	0.14	1	6%	1
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.