Game Recap: DAL 1, WPG 4, March 14, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

DAL1

FinalFri, Mar 14, 2025Every game that night

WPG4

WPG beat DAL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.81 expected goals to 1.80. K. Connor led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	0	0	1	1
WPG	2	1	1	4

1st 8:01WPGD. Samberg0.06 xG
1st 17:02WPGK. Connor0.15 xG
2nd 6:43WPGK. Connor0.22 xG
3rd 7:26WPGM. Barron0.09 xG
3rd 16:11DALM. Marchment0.21 xG

Team Stats

DALWPG

25Shots on goal22

1.80Expected goals2.81

57Shot attempts48

255v5 shots on goal20

0/1Power play0/1

17Hits35

10Blocked shots17

2Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways21

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 1.80 xGWPG 2.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL25 on goal, 1 scored

WPG21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:30	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	15:37	0:00
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:30	2:00
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:33	2:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:01	2:00
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	16:37	2:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	15:13	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:12	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:41	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-3	0	12:39	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:21	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	23:24	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	-3	0	24:02	2:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	20:29	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	-3	2	18:43	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:12	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	22	18	4	.818	60:00	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	3	3	3	1	0	+2	0	17:43	1:18
K. Connor	LW	2	1	3	4	0	0	+2	0	17:29	1:18
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	17:50	1:18
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	10:51	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	10:00	0:00
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	18:07	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:13	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:03	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	15:22	1:18
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:15	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:06	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	12:03	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	+3	0	23:28	1:18
D. Samberg	D	1	0	1	3	2	3	+1	0	23:08	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	2	4	2	+1	0	21:52	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	7	1	+2	0	19:57	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	15:44	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	25	24	1	.960	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.6, WPG 3.0	DAL 1, WPG 4
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	DAL 26.0, WPG 28.4	DAL 25, WPG 22
Win chance	WPG 56%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	4	1.04	3	36%	2
DAL J. Robertson	2.6	1	0.85	0	30%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.5	2	0.79	0	25%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.4	2	0.85	0	31%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	1	0.69	0	27%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.2	0	0.64	1	12%	0
DAL T. Harley	2.0	4	0.48	0	11%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	1.9	3	0.92	3	33%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	1	0.78	1	30%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.8	3	0.47	1	20%	1
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	3	0.68	0	25%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	0	0.41	0	19%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.6	0	0.54	0	13%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.5	0	0.49	0	16%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	2	0.50	0	18%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	3	0.25	1	4%	1
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	0	0.33	0	12%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	0	0.42	0	17%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.3	0	0.36	1	14%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	1	0.24	0	5%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.2	0	0.13	0	3%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	2	0.42	0	14%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	1	0.21	0	10%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	2	0.27	0	10%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	0	0.29	0	12%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	1	0.17	0	4%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	1	0.18	1	9%	1
DAL C. Ceci	1.0	2	0.24	1	4%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.0	1	0.30	0	13%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.0	2	0.11	0	2%	0
WPG B. Tanev	0.9	1	0.23	1	11%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	2	0.24	1	4%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.8	1	0.12	0	3%	0
DAL B. Smith	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.20	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.