Game Recap: DAL 5, WPG 4, October 9, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL5

FinalThu, Oct 9, 2025Every game that night

WPG4

DAL beat WPG 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.32 expected goals to 2.43. DAL outshot WPG 37 to 25. K. Connor scored three for WPG. J. Robertson had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Oettinger stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	2	0	3	5
WPG	1	0	3	4

1st 3:15DALM. Rantanen0.37 xG
1st 6:19WPGK. Connor0.08 xG
1st 15:24DALN. Lundkvist0.12 xG
3rd 1:01DALJ. RobertsonPP0.53 xG
3rd 1:35DALT. Seguin0.23 xG
3rd 3:23DALW. Johnston0.16 xG
3rd 9:53WPGM. BarronSH0.10 xG
3rd 11:09WPGK. ConnorSH0.02 xG
3rd 16:57WPGK. Connor0.15 xG

Team Stats

DALWPG

37Shots on goal25

4.32Expected goals2.43

57Shot attempts53

245v5 shots on goal15

1/5Power play0/4

21Hits33

18Blocked shots8

10Penalty minutes14

8Giveaways22

2Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 4.32 xGWPG 2.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL37 on goal, 5 scored

WPG22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	2	3	3	0	0	-1	2	18:48	5:15
R. Hintz	C	0	2	2	7	0	0	0	2	19:25	6:08
J. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	0	18:09	6:12
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:05	6:06
T. Seguin	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	15:27	1:57
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:25	1:59
S. Steel	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:07	0:53
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:21	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	11:53	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	11:48	1:10
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	2	8:47	0:06
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	7:46	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	2	2	0	0	5	0	2	21:52	2:00
N. Lundkvist	D	1	1	2	2	1	1	+3	0	16:45	0:37
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	0	27:02	6:05
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:55	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:14	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	2	12:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	25	21	4	.840	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	3	3	1	0	0	+2	2	21:16	4:20
K. Connor	LW	3	0	3	6	0	0	+1	0	19:45	3:09
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	19:08	4:16
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	0	10:03	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	18:19	4:24
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	16:06	3:31
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:21	4:03
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	15:07	3:34
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:05	4:22
N. Chibrikov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:08	0:08
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	7:33	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	-2	0	7:18	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	0	2	21:03	0:05
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	2	27:04	4:40
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	4	23:28	3:40
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	-1	0	19:38	0:08
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	11:33	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	37	32	5	.865	58:44	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Duchene12:31T. Seguin12:32W. Johnston10:32

Line 2M. Rantanen12:42R. Hintz10:46S. Steel9:08

Line 3R. Faksa9:21N. Bastian7:46J. Hryckowian8:41

Line 4C. Blackwell7:56M. Bourque9:17

Pair 1N. Lundkvist15:20T. Harley14:41

Pair 2E. Lindell12:52M. Heiskanen15:38

Pair 3L. Bichsel11:54I. Lyubushkin11:25

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele14:34K. Connor13:28G. Vilardi13:53

Line 2J. Toews11:20N. Chibrikov10:00G. Nyquist9:20

Line 3N. Niederreiter10:48V. Namestnikov8:41A. Iafallo9:39

Line 4M. Barron7:03C. Koepke6:16T. Pearson7:02

Pair 1D. DeMelo16:36J. Morrissey18:31

Pair 2H. Fleury14:37N. Pionk15:27

Pair 3L. Schenn7:29L. Stanley9:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.5, WPG 3.2	DAL 5, WPG 4
Total goals	5.7	9
Shots on goal	DAL 23.2, WPG 30.6	DAL 37, WPG 25
Win chance	WPG 62%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.6	6	1.15	3	38%	3
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	3	0.90	3	32%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	1	0.95	3	32%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.2	8	0.72	2	27%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	1	0.77	1	29%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.1	1	0.60	1	27%	1
WPG N. Pionk	2.0	2	0.46	0	8%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.0	5	0.53	1	21%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	0	0.64	0	12%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	0	0.52	2	11%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	4	0.43	0	20%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.9	4	0.50	0	8%	0
DAL R. Hintz	1.8	7	0.63	2	26%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.7	1	0.55	0	19%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	1	0.37	0	15%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.5	0	0.56	1	21%	0
WPG N. Chibrikov	1.5	0	0.41	0	15%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.3	1	0.25	0	13%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	0	0.47	0	15%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	2	0.19	2	3%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.3	1	0.23	1	10%	1
WPG D. DeMelo	1.2	0	0.29	2	4%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.2	1	0.14	0	3%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	2	0.24	0	9%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	1	0.24	0	5%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
DAL R. Faksa	1.1	0	0.26	0	10%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.18	0	9%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.0	2	0.35	0	12%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	2	0.14	0	2%	0
DAL S. Steel	0.9	1	0.26	1	9%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	1	0.13	0	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	0	0.15	0	2%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.7	1	0.17	0	7%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.13	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.