Game Recap: DAL 4, WPG 3, December 9, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL4

FinalTue, Dec 9, 2025Every game that night

WPG3

DAL beat WPG 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.96 expected goals to 3.60. WPG outshot DAL 33 to 19. M. Rantanen led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). K. Connor had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. C. DeSmith stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	2	1	4
WPG	0	2	1	3

1st 0:44DALE. Lindell0.02 xG
2nd 1:16DALR. HintzPP0.11 xG
2nd 2:31DALA. Petrovic0.10 xG
2nd 11:04WPGM. Scheifele0.15 xG
2nd 18:52WPGM. Scheifele0.13 xG
3rd 4:46DALJ. RobertsonPP0.10 xG
3rd 5:54WPGL. Stanley0.48 xG

Team Stats

DALWPG

19Shots on goal33

1.96Expected goals3.60

42Shot attempts64

145v5 shots on goal24

2/4Power play0/4

8Hits32

15Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways15

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 1.96 xGWPG 3.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL18 on goal, 4 scored

WPG33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	19:07	7:21
W. Johnston	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	-1	2	18:14	6:58
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	18:04	7:02
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:28	6:39
M. Bourque	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:29	0:19
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:50	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:07	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	14:15	0:00
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:03	0:39
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:35	0:25
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:00	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:59	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	30:50	6:50
E. Lindell	D	1	0	1	3	0	4	0	0	24:37	0:04
A. Petrovic	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	2	18:14	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:32	0:38
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	11:57	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	9:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	33	30	3	.909	59:47	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	2	0	2	3	0	2	+1	0	25:47	7:01
K. Connor	LW	0	2	2	7	0	0	+1	0	25:31	6:58
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:48	6:59
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	12:40	1:58
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	0	21:33	6:06
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	14:32	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:06	0:58
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:02	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:59	1:01
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:03	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	9:37	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:36	1:54
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	5	2	3	0	0	26:33	6:37
L. Stanley	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	11:56	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	23:43	1:23
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	21:13	0:01
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	17:07	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	10:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	19	15	4	.789	57:52	Loss
D. DiVincentiis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Bourque13:32J. Hryckowian11:47O. Bäck10:17

Line 2M. Rantanen10:50W. Johnston10:47M. Duchene12:11

Line 3J. Benn12:06J. Robertson11:02R. Hintz8:49

Line 4C. Blackwell7:54R. Faksa8:01S. Steel12:04

Pair 1M. Heiskanen15:54E. Lindell16:30

Pair 2A. Petrovic17:16T. Harley16:01

Pair 3K. Capobianco9:52N. Lundkvist11:07

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:52K. Connor15:44A. Iafallo13:07

Line 2N. Niederreiter10:46A. Lowry10:18G. Vilardi12:46

Line 3V. Namestnikov9:17C. Perfetti9:35T. Pearson8:47

Line 4M. Barron8:25C. Koepke7:23J. Toews6:37

Pair 1J. Morrissey18:49D. DeMelo15:15

Pair 2D. Samberg14:49N. Pionk15:53

Pair 3L. Schenn9:43L. Stanley11:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayKyle Connor WPG Turns 29 that day2 A, 7 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.7, WPG 2.8	DAL 4, WPG 3
Total goals	5.5	7
Shots on goal	DAL 25.0, WPG 27.8	DAL 19, WPG 33
Win chance	WPG 53%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	7	1.02	2	34%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.0	4	0.96	1	33%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	0	0.93	3	30%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.3	1	0.69	1	12%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.2	0	0.69	2	28%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	3	0.97	2	32%	2
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	2	0.76	1	30%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	5	0.68	1	13%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	2	0.71	1	26%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	1	0.34	0	7%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	2	0.50	1	18%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	1	0.45	0	10%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.5	1	0.39	0	18%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.5	0	0.25	0	4%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.4	1	0.42	0	16%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.4	0	0.49	0	17%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	3	0.32	0	14%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.3	0	0.55	0	20%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	3	0.33	1	8%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.3	2	0.24	0	11%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	0	0.39	0	14%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	0	0.23	0	4%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.3	2	0.22	1	4%	1
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	1	0.34	0	15%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	1	0.28	1	12%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	1	0.26	0	11%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	1	0.21	0	10%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	0	0.29	0	4%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.0	0	0.13	0	3%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	2	0.29	0	10%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.0	3	0.21	1	4%	1
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	2	0.26	0	10%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	0	0.23	0	7%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.20	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.