ANA beat DET 6-4, with the chances close: 3.40 expected goals to 2.80. O. Zellweger led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Strome had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Gibson stopped 21 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| ANA | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
- 1st 1:12ANAO. Zellweger0.03 xG
- 1st 7:59DETM. KasperPP0.10 xG
- 1st 19:16DETJ. BerggrenPP0.20 xG
- 2nd 1:05DETL. Raymond0.14 xG
- 2nd 17:44ANAT. ZegrasPP0.19 xG
- 3rd 3:54ANAT. TerryPP0.04 xG
- 3rd 11:09ANAC. Gauthier0.07 xG
- 3rd 11:47ANAR. Johnston0.06 xG
- 3rd 16:16DETA. DeBrincatPP0.27 xG
- 3rd 19:36ANAR. StromeEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.80 xGANA 3.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:09 | 2:54 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:11 | 2:58 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:02 | 1:10 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:14 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 15:43 | 1:18 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:24 | 1:12 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:21 | 3:02 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:45 | 2:54 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25:04 | 3:10 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:33 | 0:06 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:23 | 0:01 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 1:01 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 4:38 |
| T. Terry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 4:55 |
| R. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:31 | 4:21 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:04 | 4:48 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:35 |
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 1:51 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 1:31 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:39 | 1:26 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:27 | 5:15 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 20:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:02 | 0:19 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:48 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 1:06 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.4, ANA 3.0 | DET 4, ANA 6 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | DET 30.3, ANA 29.4 | DET 25, ANA 29 |
| Win chance | DET 56% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.4 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.1 | 0 | 1.01 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.9 | 4 | 0.87 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.8 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.4 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.51 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.8 | 2 | 0.36 | 3 | 9% | 1 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.7 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.7 | 6 | 0.52 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.4 | 3 | 0.26 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.4 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.9 | 4 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.