BOS beat DET 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.66 expected goals to 2.41. BOS outshot DET 35 to 25. L. Raymond led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Brazeau had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Korpisalo stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 7:31DETL. Raymond0.06 xG
- 1st 9:15BOSN. Zadorov0.07 xG
- 3rd 1:19DETL. Raymond0.14 xG
- 3rd 9:32BOSJ. BrazeauPP0.07 xG
- OT 2:15BOSP. Zacha0.12 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.41 xGBOS 1.66 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:52 | 2:53 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:13 | 2:55 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:40 | 2:53 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 18:33 | 0:16 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 2:50 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 2:14 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 2:52 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:24 | 2:49 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:34 | 2:43 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:12 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:15 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:13 | 0:51 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:27 | 2:52 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 20:09 | 3:01 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | 16:59 | 0:17 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:21 | 0:07 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:07 | 3:17 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:53 | 2:27 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 2:41 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:22 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 1:24 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:24 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:30 | 1:22 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:17 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:26 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:16 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| M. McLaughlin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 20:35 | 0:20 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:07 | 1:27 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 26:26 | 2:37 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 61:48 | Win |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.6, BOS 3.3 | DET 2, BOS 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.3, BOS 30.3 | DET 25, BOS 35 |
| Win chance | BOS 60% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.0 | 4 | 1.16 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.5 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.5 | 0 | 0.86 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 4 | 0.82 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 2.0 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.7 | 5 | 0.45 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.6 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.6 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 4 | 0.38 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. McLaughlin | 1.2 | 4 | 0.28 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.28 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS J. Oesterle | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.