Game Recap: DET 2, BUF 4, October 22, 2025

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Game Recap

DET2

FinalWed, Oct 22, 2025Every game that night

BUF4

BUF beat DET 4-2, with the chances close: 3.97 expected goals to 3.51. J. Quinn led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Seider had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Ellis stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	0	2	0	2
BUF	0	2	2	4

2nd 3:00DETJ. Compher0.29 xG
2nd 11:37BUFJ. Zucker0.23 xG
2nd 16:28BUFT. Kozak0.23 xG
2nd 18:20DETE. Finnie0.08 xG
3rd 4:15BUFJ. QuinnPP0.05 xG
3rd 8:10BUFA. Tuch0.09 xG

Team Stats

DETBUF

31Shots on goal31

3.51Expected goals3.97

73Shot attempts67

245v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play1/5

15Hits19

15Blocked shots18

10Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways9

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.51 xGBUF 3.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET31 on goal, 2 scored

BUF29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	19:48	3:48
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:09	3:26
J. Berggren	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:59	1:05
J. Compher	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:53	0:17
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:05	0:14
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	16:42	3:43
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:41	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	14:21	2:39
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	2	14:04	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	13:52	0:12
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:23	0:00
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	11:02	0:34
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	15:15	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	2	26:15	3:24
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	22:50	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	2	17:43	0:01
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:35	0:37
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	13:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	31	27	4	.871	56:49	Loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Quinn	RW	1	2	3	3	0	0	+2	0	11:40	2:50
R. McLeod	C	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	17:57	2:47
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	4	0	4	0	0	19:19	3:22
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:58	6:21
T. Kozak	C	1	0	1	1	5	2	+1	0	15:46	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	8:28	3:49
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	21:03	6:51
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	19:36	6:39
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	15:41	3:23
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	13:08	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:40	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	9:58	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	22:39	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	20:41	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	19:42	3:30
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	21:50	7:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:34	2:53
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	31	29	2	.935	59:54	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1D. Larkin11:29L. Raymond12:17E. Finnie9:33

Line 2J. Compher11:10J. Berggren11:40J. Riemsdyk11:26

Line 3A. Copp11:13M. Rasmussen10:41M. Appleton9:40

Line 4A. DeBrincat10:43M. Kasper8:58M. Brandsegg-Nygård9:31

Pair 1B. Chiarot18:01M. Seider17:59

Pair 2S. Edvinsson14:43A. Sandin-Pellikka12:48

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker10:50A. Johansson11:28

BUF

Line 1Z. Benson13:03T. Thompson11:46J.Kulich12:18

Line 2A. Tuch11:57J. Doan10:51R. McLeod10:51

Line 3B. Malenstyn10:56P. Krebs10:18T. Kozak12:48

Line 4J. Quinn8:50N. Ostlund9:58J. Zucker4:39

Pair 1C. Timmins18:01O. Power15:05

Pair 2B. Byram13:57R. Dahlin13:23

Pair 3M. Samuelsson16:03Z. Metsa9:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJacob Bernard-Docker DET Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20253 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.4, BUF 3.3	DET 2, BUF 4
Total goals	6.7	6
Shots on goal	DET 28.3, BUF 28.1	DET 31, BUF 31
Win chance	DET 51%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	5	0.98	0	41%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.9	3	0.83	0	30%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.8	2	0.89	0	19%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.8	1	0.97	1	33%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	4	0.85	1	32%	1
BUF J.Kulich	2.2	2	0.47	0	23%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.1	1	0.52	1	19%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	2	0.63	1	24%	1
BUF Z. Benson	2.0	0	0.56	0	17%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.9	1	0.62	1	19%	1
DET M. Seider	1.9	5	0.55	0	9%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.9	1	0.52	0	22%	0
DET L. Raymond	1.8	0	0.74	1	23%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	1	0.44	0	7%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.6	3	0.26	0	14%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	3	0.54	3	20%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.5	0	0.63	2	22%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.4	0	0.29	0	9%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	1	0.24	0	7%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	1	0.49	0	17%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.3	1	0.36	0	13%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	3	0.47	1	17%	1
BUF B. Byram	1.2	3	0.50	1	12%	0
DET A. Copp	1.2	2	0.43	0	15%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.2	1	0.33	1	6%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	0	0.38	0	10%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	3	0.30	0	13%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.1	2	0.34	1	15%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	0	0.34	0	11%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	1	0.23	1	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	3	0.16	0	7%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	1	0.16	1	5%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	0.8	1	0.18	0	11%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	3	0.17	0	4%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	1	0.23	1	13%	1

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.