Game Recap: DET 5, CBJ 4, January 2, 2025

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Game Recap

DET5

FinalThu, Jan 2, 2025Every game that night

CBJ4

DET beat CBJ 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 2.40 expected goals to 1.46. J. van Riemsdyk led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). Z. Werenski had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. C. Talbot stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	3	0	2	5
CBJ	1	2	1	4

1st 2:42CBJJ. van RiemsdykPP0.10 xG
1st 6:55DETP. Kane0.51 xG
1st 14:39DETE. Gustafsson0.01 xG
1st 17:09DETA. DeBrincatPP0.15 xG
2nd 11:09CBJZ. Werenski0.07 xG
2nd 18:40CBJS. Monahan0.14 xG
3rd 4:54DETD. LarkinPP0.25 xG
3rd 17:19CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.03 xG
3rd 19:24DETJ. Berggren0.18 xG

Team Stats

DETCBJ

26Shots on goal25

2.40Expected goals1.46

48Shot attempts54

215v5 shots on goal22

2/3Power play1/2

16Hits18

15Blocked shots18

0Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways11

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.40 xGCBJ 1.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET25 on goal, 5 scored

CBJ24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	2	3	2	1	0	+1	14:24	2:09
D. Larkin	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	-1	20:01	1:52
P. Kane	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	15:05	2:08
J. Berggren	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	15:19	0:53
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	13:42	0:16
T. Motte	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	12:34	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	17:26	1:54
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	17:07	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	16:47	0:55
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	14:59	0:55
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	11:12	0:54
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	10:42	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	1	4	2	-1	25:49	2:02
B. Chiarot	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	-1	24:18	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:00	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:16	0:45
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	20:32	0:16
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	17:17	0:16

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	25	21	4	.840	59:35	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	2	1	3	2	0	1	+1	0	13:00	0:52
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	20:29	2:04
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	17:45	1:52
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:37	0:33
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	24:14	2:21
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6	21:27	2:06
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:39	2:17
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	15:56	0:59
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:42	0:58
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:39	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8:53	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	2	3	8	1	4	+3	2	26:16	2:04
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	26:39	1:51
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	19:48	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:44	1:38
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:29	0:00
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	9:09	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	3:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	26	21	5	.808	59:26	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCam Talbot CBJ First game against DET since he left (his team until Apr 2026)21 saves on 25, the win
Old teamDaniil Tarasov DET Faces CBJ, his team until Apr 20250 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.4, CBJ 3.5	DET 5, CBJ 4
Total goals	6.8	9
Shots on goal	DET 27.9, CBJ 31.2	DET 26, CBJ 25
Win chance	CBJ 52%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	8	0.99	3	18%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	3.0	2	0.90	0	34%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.7	4	0.98	2	35%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	2.5	2	0.79	3	30%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.5	2	0.89	1	28%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.4	2	0.79	0	32%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.3	2	0.51	1	18%	0
DET P. Kane	2.2	4	0.79	2	25%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.0	0	0.94	0	30%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	2.0	0	0.68	0	24%	0
DET M. Seider	1.8	1	0.56	1	9%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.8	0	0.63	0	25%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	1.8	2	0.49	1	20%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.5	0	0.33	0	15%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.4	2	0.45	3	17%	2
DET J. Berggren	1.4	2	0.41	1	19%	1
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.26	1	7%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	0	0.30	0	6%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.40	0	17%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.3	1	0.25	0	11%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	2	0.57	0	20%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	0	0.43	0	11%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	0	0.40	1	8%	0
DET T. Motte	1.1	2	0.20	1	12%	0
DET A. Copp	1.1	2	0.45	1	16%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	2	0.42	0	17%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	0	0.29	0	13%	0
DET J. Petry	1.1	1	0.35	0	6%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	0	0.33	0	9%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.1	1	0.33	1	5%	1
DET J. Veleno	1.0	1	0.31	0	13%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.9	1	0.20	0	10%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	2	0.14	0	2%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.6	1	0.11	0	2%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	1	0.17	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.